A Boston Globe poll released Monday shows Scott Brown now leads Elizabeth Warren by two points, 45% to 43% in the hotly contested Massachusetts Senate race. This is a reversal from a Globe poll published earlier this month, which showed Warren in the lead by five points.
The reversal appears to be fueled by a significant increase in the number of disappointed Obama voters who have extended that disappointment to Elizabeth Warren.
While disappointed Obama voters have moved to undecided and haven’t swung to Romney yet, it’s a different story in the Senate race, where Brown is viewed much more favorably than Romney. In the past several weeks, a significant number of disappointed Obama/Warren voters have switched to undecided in the Presidential race but are now Scott Brown voters in the Senate race.
Brown appears to be benefiting from the nationwide Romney surge and Obama dropoff that is taking place in both blue and red states. In Massachusetts, this new poll suggests that it’s more an Obama dropoff than a Romney surge. The poll shows Obama leading Romney by a mere 16 points — 52% to 36%, which is ten points less than the 26 points Obama defeated McCain by in the 2008 election — 62% to 36%. Obama’s lost ten points since 2008, while Romney has yet to improve on McCain’s 36%.
Other blue states are experiencing a similar drop in Obama support. In California, for instance, Obama’s margin is down 10 points, from a 24-point margin in 2008’s vote tallies to the latest poll showing a 14-point margin. In his home state of Illinois, Obama’s margin is down 12 points, from the actual 25-point margin of 2008 to a recent poll showing a 13-point margin.
The Globe on Monday reported the details of an earlier WBUR poll, which also showed Brown with a two-point lead:
A WBUR poll taken Sept. 26 through Sept. 28 showed Warren with a 2 percentage point lead, which grew to 4 percentage points with the inclusion of leaners. In all, seven of nine previous polls had shown Warren with a slight lead, including a Springfield Republican poll released over the weekend. A Boston Globe poll, which surveyed voters between Sept. 21 and Sept. 27, gave Warren a 5 point advantage.
But this was the first poll taken after the Oct. 3 presidential debate between President Obama and former governor Mitt Romney. That debate has helped boost Romney’s campaign, which may be affecting races lower on the ballot.
Obama leads Romney by 16 points on the newest WBUR poll. It’s a sizable advantage, but down from the 28-point lead he held in the previous WBUR poll.
Brown’s rise in the polls precedes the final debate this Wednesday between the two candidates.