According to a new poll from Franklin and Marshall, Mitt Romney is just four percentage points behind President Barack Obama … in Pennsylvania. In September, that gap was a full nine points. “Momentum is with Romney,” says poll director Terry Madonna. Madonna thinks that Romney may run out of time to make up that deficit. But the internals of the poll are shocking for Obama. Romney is ahead of Obama in terms of who the public believes can best fix the economy. Obama’s personal favorability is down from 2008; they’re actually at George W. Bush numbers circa 2004. And voter interest is down from 73% in 2008 to 67% today.
The poll was taken October 23-28, 2012, so it does not reflect late-breaking support for Romney. And the poll itself was of 427 Democrats, 317 Republicans, and 105 independents/others; this is a D+13 poll. That’s out of line, since Obama only won the state in 2008 by 11 points. Independents break for Romney by 16 points. If Democratic turnout is down at all, Romney has a very solid shot at winning Pennsylvania.