The race is on, my friends, and not just between Obama and Romney but also between two entirely different sets of polling turnout models. One says the electorate will look like the wave election of 2008 that swept Obama into office with a seven-percent turnout election. Another says the electorate will look more like 2004, when neither party enjoyed an advantage. Here are eight reasons my money’s on the 2004 model and here are more polls backing that up:
Republican pollster Citizens United show Romney up in Ohio 49-46% .
Citizens United has Romney trailing by only two in Wisconsin, 49-47% and a new WI poll from Rasmussen shows the race tied at 49%. We know Wisconsin is close, because both candidates are spending precious time there in the closing days of the campaign.
There’s even a juiced Marist Poll showing Obama only up 3 in the Dairy State. Last week, Marist had Obama up 6. Their skew is D+5. 2008 was D+6 and 2010 was R+1. So Marist is awfully optimistic about Obama’s turnout advantage. Regardless, Romney has some real momentum there.
In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points.
Today, Rasmussen has Romney up 3 in Colorado, 50-47%.
Rasmussen has Romney ahead in Iowa by 1, 49-48%. Last week, Rasmussen had the race tied. A University of Hawkeye poll also shows Romney up a bit in Iowa. A new Marist poll has Obama up in Iowa, but it’s looking like an outlier. Marist almost always shows Obama with better margins than other pollsters. Which means…
…that when a pro-Obama pollster like Marist shows Romney only down 2 in New Hampshire (49-47%), that’s good news, especially with respect to momentum. In September, Obama was up 7.
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