Michael Barone, the seasoned precinct-by-precinct analyst who has anchored Fox News election coverage for years, has made a bold prediction: not only will Mitt Romney win the presidency on Tuesday, he will win it in a landslide. Barone says that Romney will win Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia, of course. But then he calls the following states for Romney:
- Ohio: “The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again.”
- Iowa: “The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer’s remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats’ traditional margin in early voting has declined.”
- New Hampshire: “Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail.”
- Wisconsin: “Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don’t see many Obama signs on campuses.”
Barone says that Michigan, Nevada, and Minnesota will all go for Obama. But all in all, Romney will win 315 electoral votes.