Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by five points in a new Gravis Marketing Iowa poll among independents. He trails Obama by four points statewide in the poll, thanks only to a six-point Democratic sampling advantage.
In 2008, when enthusiasm for Obama was at its peak, Democrats had only a one-point turnout advantage over Republicans. In 2010, Republicans had a four-point advantage over Democrats. 2012’s partisan breakdown will most likely be somewhere between 2008’s and 2010’s. Even Iowa’s Democratic party chair admitted “nobody feels” the same level of enthusiasm for Obama as in 2008.
Obama is even underwater in his job approval rating in the poll, with 46% of Iowans disapproving of his job performance while only 45% approve.
Yet the Gravis poll found Obama leading by four points because the poll’s sample had Democrats with six times the advantage they had over Republicans in 2008.