An American Research Group (ARG) poll before Election Day shows Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama by one point in Iowa.
The partisan breakdown of the poll is D+1 (36% Democrats, 35% Republican, 29% Independent), and Romney leads Obama by one point among independents.
In 2008, when enthusiasm for Obama was at its peak, the Illinoid Democrat won Iowa by nearly ten points over John McCain. He won independent voters by 15 points even though he only had a one-point partisan advantage at the polls.
Enthusiasm for Obama’s candidacy, as Iowa’s Democratic Party Chair even conceded, is considerably less this year, which means the partisan breakdown will most likely be somewhere between D +1 (2008) and R +4 (2010).
Democrats have underperformed in early voting in Iowa. Romney is in a better position going into election day in Iowa than John McCain in 2008 and George W. Bush in 2004.
In addition, Republicans have 85,000 more so-called “high propensity” voters than Democrats who have not yet voted, which means they will most likely vote on Election Day. This will help Romney close Obama’s slight lead in early voting,
According to the ARG poll, have swung 16 points toward the GOP nominee from four years ago.
ARG surveyed 600 Iowans between Nov. 2-4, and the poll’s margin of error was +/- four percentage points.