Up Next: Housing Prices, Consumer Confidence and GDP

Up Next: Housing Prices, Consumer Confidence and GDP

Today, the Conference Board releases critical consumer confidence data for July. Economists expect it to hold near steady at 81-the June reading was 81.4.

Wall Street follows consumer confidence closely because it drives stock prices, but the auto sector and economists pay attention because it motivates new car showroom traffic. Along with new home construction, which drives pickup truck sales, consumer confidence is a very critical indicator for Midwestern manufacturing.

The S&P Index of May housing prices-the most reliable indicator of recent home prices movements-is expected to show a big year-over-year gain of 12.3 percent, but May prices were pushed by contracts written before the recent surge in mortgage rates.

Tomorrow, Commerce reports second quarter GDP, and that is expected to disappoint. Consumer spending, less cars, has been slowing. Autos compromise 20 percent of the economy, and have been driven mostly by replacement of vehicles worn out during the financial crisis and truck sales in response to the housing boom.

Rising mortgage rates will dampen truck transactions prices. Also, a weakened yen artificially advantages Japanese imports of cars. All raise concerns about an expected rebound in GDP for the second half-growth will likely be slower than Wall Street economists expect.

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data…

 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 29

 

 

 

July 30

 

 

 

S&P Case/Shiller Index – May

 

 

 

Twenty City M/M

2.6

2.5

2.0

Twenty City M/M – SA

1.3

1.7

1.3

Twenty City Y/Y

12.4

12.0

12.3

 

 

 

 

Consumer Confidence – July

81.3

81.4

81.0

 

 

 

 

July 31

 

 

 

ADP Employment Report – July

165K

188

179

 

 

 

 

GDP – Q2 (a)

1.4%

1.8

1.1

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.0

1.3

1.1

PCE

 

1.0

 

PCE Deflator

 

1.0

 

PCE Core Deflator

 

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

Employment Cost Index – Q2

0.5%

0.3

0.4

Employment Cost Index – Y/Y

1.6

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

Chicago PMI – July

53.5

51.6

54.0

FMOC

0.125%

0.125

0.125

 

 

 

 

Augsut 1

 

 

 

Initial Unemployment Claims

345K

343

345

 

 

 

 

Auto Sales* – July

15.79M

15.96

15.80

Car Sales

7.81

7.95

 

Truck Sales

8.01

8.01

 

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Markit PMI Manufacturing Index – July

53.2

51.9

53.1

 

 

 

 

ISM (Mfg) – July

52.0

50.9

52.0

ISM Prices

54.0

52.5

54.2

 

 

 

 

Construction Spending – June

0.5%

0.5

0.4

 

 

 

 

August 2

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls – July

183K

195

175

Private

189

202

187

Core Private*

149

166

 

Manufacturing

2

-6

 

Unemployment

7.5

7.6

7.5

Average Workweek

34.5

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.1

0.4

0.2

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

 

 

 

 

 

Personal Income – June

0.4%

0.5

0.4

Personal Spending

0.4

0.3

0.4

 

 

 

 

Factory Orders – June

2.5%

2.1

2.3

Durable Goods Orders

4.5

3.7

 

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.7

0.7

 

 

 

 

 

Week of August 5

 

 

 

August 5

 

 

 

ISM Services – July

53.0

52.2

53.0

ISM Prices

52.5

52.2

52.5

ISM Business Activity

52.5

51.7

 

 

 

 

 

August 6

 

 

 

International Trade – June

-$44.2B

-45.0

-44.1

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

47.5

47.1

 

August 7

 

 

 

Consumer Credit – June

$12.0

19.6

15

 

 

 

 

August 8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 9

 

 

 

Wholesale Inventories – June

0.4%

-0.5

0.2

Wholesale Sales

0.8

1.6

0.5

Peter Morici is a professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland School, and a widely published columnist. Follow him on Twitter.

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