In another edition of the polls the media won’t cover, between September 29 and October 6, Democrats have lost a four point lead in Rasmussen’s generic ballot that asks voters if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican in the upcoming midterm elections. That poll is now tied at 40% – 40%. At the end of last month, Democrats led 42% – 38%.
The media continue to run headlines that read, “Poll Shows GOP Taking Share of Shutdown Blame,” which is true. Most polls show Republicans are at a single-digit deficit when compared to Democrats (still, a vast improvement over the 2-to-1 deficit the GOP faced in ’95). But all that matters is what happens on Election Day.
If you back up a little further, Obama and his media’s entire shutdown strategy is all about 2014. The media want to give Obama a third-term, which is an accurate way of describing what will happen if Democrats retake the House.
Like this Rasmussen poll, most polls show that Democrats are only hurting themselves a wee-bit more than Republicans. But midterm House races are hyper-local base elections. Which means that another story the media won’t tell is what a GOP surrender would do to turnout in the 2014.
Context matters, and while the media ignore inconvenient polls and try to scare the GOP into handing Obama a victory, the story the media won’t tell is what a surrender will do to the GOP’s electoral chances if the base feels betrayed and stays home.
When you are in political trouble, you hold on to your base. That is Politics 101. That is why Obama is doing what he’s doing and why Democrats are doing what they are doing.
Everyone is in political trouble, but the only Party the media are trying to coax into a full collapse is the GOP.
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC