Via the Manhattan Institute, Avik Roy of Forbes and HotAir comes a fascinating map of Obamacare premium changes in 49 states (Hawaii’s exchanges could not provide data). The result: premium increases in 41 of 50 states, on average. Premiums go down in a handful of Northeast states that already had highly-regulated insurance markets. (They also go down for some women–after subsidies are taken into account.)
So Obamacare represents, roughly, a redistribution of wealth to blue states. But there are counter-currents: Obamacare will hurt the young, especially young men, while helping older Americans. Roy notes: “The irony is that, in 2012, younger voters overwhelmingly supported President Obama, while older voters backed Mitt Romney. Obamacare, in the average state, is a massive transfer of wealth from the young to the old.”
The success of Obamacare will depend on young men showing up for duty. But Roy concludes: “Young men seem no more likely to buy a costlier insurance product than they were to buy one, pre-Obamacare, that was more affordable.” As Obamacare “architect” Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel said months ago, the government will need to (ahem) convince young men to enroll. Short of the draft, that won’t happen–not with a launch this bad..