Two weeks ago, among likely voters, the widely-respected Marquette Law School poll showed the gubernatorial race in Wisconsin all tied up at 47% among likely voters between Democrat Mary Burke and incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker. A poll released today, the last before Tuesday’s election, shows Walker surging to a 50-43% lead.
The magic 50% mark for an incumbent is a very big deal.
This almost perfectly matches Walker’s favorability rating in this poll, which is 50-46%. Walker’s job approval among likely voters sits at 52-46%. Among registered voters, it’s 49-47%.
The poll’s internals show Burke up only six with women while Walker leads by 22 points with men.
Among registered voters, a less reliable screen, Walker is up by only 1 point, 46-45%.
Momentum at this point in the race is crucial. Walker appears to be peaking at just the right time.
A loss for Walker would almost certainly kill any national ambitions the Republican might have for 2016. Winning re-election after winning a bitter recall election in a blue state like Wisconsin not only shows that Walker has some bipartisan appeal but that he can weather the worst the media and the left can deliver. It also shows he knows how to get out his vote in a ground game that will be crucial to the GOP retaking the White House in 2016.
Prior to this poll, Walker’s lead in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls was negligible.
This poll is not only good news for Walker and his reform agenda, but also for the future of the GOP.
John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC