Democrats and the media have been making much of the fact that Democrat Senate candidate Michelle Nunn has a real chance to win Georgia, but the truth is that she has failed to post any kind of lead in 7 of the last 7 polls. Other than a tie in one poll, Nunn’s Republican challenger, David Perdue, has not only led in every poll, but his lead has widened to 3 or 4 points.
If neither candidate can reach the magic 50 percent plus one mark, there will be a run-off on January 6. Thus far, Perdue sits at a Real Clear Politics average of 46% while Nunn hovers a little below 44%. Other than one poll in the middle of September where Perdue hit 50%, all the polls show both candidates falling short of 50%. A libertarian candidate is picking up an average of 3.6%.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight predicts Perdue will win 50 percent plus one tomorrow, but says a runoff is looking more and more likely. FiveThirtyEight also says Perdue would be favored to win a run-off.
From the looks of the polling today, in order to retain the Senate, Democrats will have to hold New Hampshire and North Carolina (both of which are statistically tied) and snatch Kansas and Georgia from Republicans. That’s possible but a tougher hand to win than where the GOP currently stands.
John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC