From Harry Enten writing at FiveThirtyEight:
Mike Huckabee’s support in Iowa started to climb in late 2007. The Republican presidential candidate and former Arkansas governor was stuck in the single digits in the polls in the summer and early fall, but steadily gained momentum as the year came to a close and the 2008 Iowa caucuses approached.
During the 2012 primary season, Rick Santorum took even longer to find a foothold in the Hawkeye State. As late as November 2011, Santorum was in second-to-last place in Iowa with just a few percentage points of support.
Both candidates won Iowa, and both candidates relied on socially conservative voters to do it. Indeed, candidates who rely on Christian conservative support tend to peak late in Iowa. Which is why I sort of agree with this tweet from The New York Times’ Nate Cohn:
Sleeper pick to benefit from Walker dropout: Jindal
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 22, 2015
I’m not sure Jindal benefits from Scott Walker’s recent exit from the Republican race, exactly, but I do think the Louisiana governor is a sleeper pick to win the Iowa caucuses.
Read the rest of the story at FiveThirtyEight.