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Iowa Poll: Trump, Cruz In Statistical Tie; Rubio Surges to Tight Third


An Emerson College poll released on the morning of the Iowa Caucus shows what most recent polls have: Donald Trump in the lead, but in this case not really. Trump and Ted Cruz are in a statistical dead heat. Trump sits at 27% support, while Cruz sits at 26%. That is a -6 point drop for Trump since last week.


In this particular poll, Marco Rubio surged +8 points to 22% support.

The surge for Rubio appears to be real. In the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, in just one week, the Florida senator has jumped from an average of 11% support to 17%.

In this same poll of Iowa polls, Trump bests his rivals by +4.7 points.

Iowa has never been Trump’s strongest state. Throughout the campaign he has never held a lead much higher than this current +4.7. Last year, the billionaire businessman lost his lead for a time to Ben Carson. Recently, Cruz took the lead for a while. Each time, Trump has fought his way back.

Whatever happens in Iowa, Trump will move to next week’s round of voting in New Hampshire with a crushing 20% lead.

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