Poll Claims #NeverTrump Revival

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
AP/Carolyn Kaster

A Morning Consult/Politico poll released on Wednesday claims, “Thirty-eight percent of Republicans think Trump should be challenged in the Republican primary election for President.”

“The poll was conducted from May 17-19, 2018, among a national sample of 1990 registered voters,” and has a margin of error of plus or minus two points for all voters.

The demographic breakdown of the 1,990 registered voters who were poll respondents by party affiliation was: 620 registered Republican voters, (31 percent), 698 registered Democratic voters (35 percent), 671 Independent voters (34 percent).

The poll’s margin of error with regards to the 620 registered Republicans surveyed (notably not “likely primary voters”) is significantly higher than the plus or minus two points for the results for all 1,990 registered voters surveyed.

Forty-two percent of all respondents said the country is going in the right direction, while 58 percent said it is on the wrong track.

Forty-four percent approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, while 52 percent disapprove.

A breakdown of the poll’s job approval rating for President Trump by party affiliation suggests President Trump is extremely popular with Republicans, a result in contrast with the finding in the same poll that nearly four out of 10 registered Republican voters want to see him challenged in the 2020 Republican presidential primary.

Eighty-one percent of Republicans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, while 16 percent disapprove.

Forty-one percent of Independents approve, while 51 percent disapprove.

Only 14 percent of Democrats approve, while 84 percent disapprove.

Other findings from the poll from the sample of registered Republican voters included the following:

  • Fifty percent said [Trump]  shouldn’t [have a primary challenger in 2020]  and 12% said they didn’t know
  • A majority of GOP voters would prefer Trump over Pence as president
  • When asked who they would prefer as POTUS, 64 percent of Republicans picked Trump, compared to 19 percent who picked Pence
  • In August 2017, 58 percent picked Trump and 28 percent picked Pence

Among the full sample of all registered voters, the poll found that “Trump loses against generic Democratic candidate but performs better than ‘Republican that is not Trump’.”

In a hypothetical election matchup, 44% of all voters picked a generic Democratic candidate compared to 36% who picked Trump. A similar poll from March yielded the same results.
In another hypothetical matchup, a ‘Republican candidate that is not Donald Trump,’ received support from 27% of voters compared to 40% who chose the generic Democratic candidate.

“The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of Registered Voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points,” the poll concluded.

Additional demographic data  for the the 1,990 registered voters who were poll respondents was as follows:

Age:

17 percent 18 to 29
23 percent 30-44
17 percent 45-54
20 percent 55-64
23 percent 65 +

Ethnicity:

81 percent White
10 percent Hispanic
13 percent African American
6 percent other

Religion:

28 percent Evangelical Christian
32 percent Non Evangelical Christian
40 percent All Non-Christian

Past voting behavior:

Voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016: 37 percent
Voted for Donald Trump in 2016:  37 percent

Voted for Barack Obama in 2012: 44 percent
Voted for Mitt Romney in 2012: 29 percent

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