Audiences RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN on Saturday as The Rock's new family film targets $25M start & $85M domestic, but WATCHMEN is now headed for no more than $110M in the US!

As expected Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain enjoyed a huge Saturday surge for just over $11M in tickets sold, and the reboot of the 70’s franchise will finish with about $25M for the 3-day. Overall, Race posted the year’s seventh-best Saturday performance.

TOP 10 SATURDAY GROSSES IN 2009

1. March 7 – Watchmen – $18.3M

2. February 21 – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail – $16.6M

3. February 14 – Friday the Thirteenth – $14.3M

4. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $13.2M

5. January 10 – Gran Torino – $12.1M

6. January 31 – Taken – $11.65M

7. March 14 – Race To Witch Mountain – $11M (estimated)

8. February 7 – He’s Just Not That Into You – $10.9M

9. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $10M

10. January 17 – Gran Torino – $10M

The last family film that teamed Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Disney was 2007’s The Game Plan. That film opened with $23M and finished with a $90.6M domestic take. That’s a 3.93 multiple ($23M X 3.93 multiple = $90.6M). But, after opening on September 28, 2007, that movie had 5 full weeks without any other significant family films in the market (Bee Movie from Dreamworks was released on November 2). Race To Witch Mountain, however, will face a minor challenger next weekend with Summit’s Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage, and then Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks) will be a box office buzzsaw starting March 27. Because of the competition, the Race is likely to finish with $80M-$85M domestic.

Meanwhile the Saturday-to-Saturday drop for Watchmen (Warner Bros) was less steep than anticipated. On opening weekend, Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel generated $18.3M on Saturday, and the movie was down 58% to about $7.7M yesterday. The final weekend take will still be a disappointing $18.07M, down 67%, but here’s a positive spin. If the opening weekend Thursday midnight business of $4.5M is deducting from last weekend’s $55.2M haul, the drop is a more respectable 64%.

The movie is being supported now by second-time (and even third-time) ticket purchases by hardcore fanboys, but ultimately, the picture will likely finish in The $100M-$110M range, which is a disappointment. Watchmen is a disaster in international markets, and although it may still break even or reach marginal profitability when ancillary rights are factored in – home video, cable, syndication, video games – it’s hard to imagine any sort of sequel. You could argue that the movie is “sequel-proof” anyway, although a Minutemen prequel would be a possibility.

The Last House On the Left (Rogue) is a strong #3 for the weekend. The R-rated remake of Wes Craven’s 1972 twisted classic played out as horror films tend to do – down 5% from Friday-to-Saturday to about $5.3M. LA Times blogger Patrick Goldstein raises an interesting point, suggesting that Last House may have merited an NC-17 rating instead of an R because of a brutal rape scene. James Berardinelli from Reelviews sums up the way Goldstein feels.

This is an uncompromising film. It is unapologetically violent, to the point where those who are upset by screen brutality will have a tough time sitting through it. It features one of the most upsetting rape scenes committed to film. The MPAA’s decision to award an R to The Last House on the Left is yet another example of how flawed the U.S. classification system is. If anything is deserving of an NC-17 for adults-only content, this is it. The violence is not cartoonish or in any way sanitized; it is grim and gut-wrenching. Nothing is spared. Consider, for example, a scene featuring a hand and an in-sink garbage disposal. There’s no need to use your imagination regarding what happens – the movie shows it in bloody detail.

This is the kind of movie that I just cannot pay to see. I like great horror films like The Shining, Carrie, Rosemary’s Baby, George Romero’s Night of the Living Dead (and Zack Snyder’s more recent remake of Dawn of the Dead), Silence of the Lambs, Scream, The Exorcist and Halloween (the original from John Carpenter). I even appreciate the evil genius of the first Saw movie. But enough is enough. When it comes to brutal rape with my popcorn, I’ll take a pass every time. The movie should wrap up its domestic theatrical engagements with something in the $35M range – hopefully, not enough to encourage more of the same.

Everything else played out about the way I reported in my Friday Early Estimates story.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES

1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $25M, $7,844 PTA, $25M cume

2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $18.07M, $5,004 PTA, $86M cume

3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $14.65M, $6,105 PTA, $14.65M cume

4. Taken (Fox) – $6.65M, $2,327 PTA, $126.83M cume

5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $5.13M, $2,329 PTA, $83.2M cume

6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5.02M, $1,949 PTA, $132.62M cume

7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $3.1M, $1,359 PTA, $137.76M cume

8. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.9M, $1,537 PTA, $89M cume

9. Coraline (Focus) – $2.65M, $1,502 PTA, $69.14M cume

10. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $2.35M, $1,349 PTA, $2.35M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.