2009 Academy Awards: Predictions, Anyone?

How did the film industry get so screwed up and turned upside down that the only feeling the annual watching of the Academy Awards elicits from me is dread? Every year, three things hover on my calendar like a big black rain cloud: prostate exam, tax season, Academy Awards — and the metaphorical similarity between all three is somewhat striking.

Obviously my career choice makes viewing the ultimate Hollywood award orgy necessary, otherwise I would return to what is my default emotion for most things: utter indifference. But how sad that it’s come to this. Going back to Johnny Carson’s hosting straight through to Billy Crystal’s, the Oscars were once one of the top three high points of the television viewing season, right after “Battle of the Network Stars” and “Dick Clark’s Bloopers and Practical Jokes.”

Maybe I’m the one who’s changed. Maybe the ceremony was always filled with a striking lack of class — with sanctimonious preening and political abuse hurled at me and mine. Regardless, over time those nine hours have simply gotten more and more torturous to sit through. You’re either on edge waiting to be insulted or on edge hoping one of the few movie stars you still hold some affection for doesn’t disappoint in some way.

There are better ways to spend a Sunday evening. One of them will most certainly be the Big Hollywood Oscar Live-Blog. No more yelling at your television. Join us! Commiserate! Put your complaints on record! What are friends for?

Now that the nominees have been announced, predictions will flood these here Inter-web-tubes. I’m too modest to predict, so think of the following as deep, insightful, wise and gentle thoughts:

Best Picture: There’s absolutely no doubt that “Up” is far and away the best picture of the year. There isn’t even a close second place. The Pixar masterpiece is almost certain to win for best animated film so the real race looks to be between James Cameron’s “Avatar” and Kathryn Bigelow’s “Hurt Locker.”

Should “Avatar” win, it won’t be long before all that groovy technology becomes the cinematic standard and the Cameron blockbuster is remembered as the “Around the World In 80 Days” of Best Picture Winners. “The Hurt Locker,” on the other hand, is the movie no one’s seen. The cloistered and hopelessly inbred film community loves it but no amount of (excessive) cheerleading on their part could bring it to even the $13 million mark.

“Crazy Heart,” “500 Days of Summer,” and “The Road” are all superior films but weren’t even nominated.

Best Director: This is going to surprise some. Obviously, I was no fan of the film for a number of reasons, including its trashing of our military and a rudderless story that eventually devolved into a series of fairly repetitive set-pieces, but no one can argue that Kathryn Bigelow’s direction of “The Hurt Locker” was anything less than masterful. Because “Up” director Pete Docter was robbed of this nomination, this one’s all Bigelow. Even if Docter hadn’t been robbed, seeing Bigelow get the long overdue recognition she deserves as one of the best in her profession would still sit just fine with me.

Best Actor: Viggo Mortensen (“The Road”) and Sam Rockwell (“Moon”) should both be on this list but either way Jeff Bridges won’t be denied.

“Crazy Heart” just went wide. Go see it!

Best Actress: This looks to be a death-match between Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock.

Not having seen Streep in “Julia and Julia” makes it difficult to comment. Okay, that’s a lie. Unless she had her acting meter re-calibrated recently, my guess is that like everything else she’s done for the last 15 years, Streep’s performance is self-consciously showy in that late-Al Pacino kind of way. I never fail to catch her acting and look forward to the day the dingo steals her phony accent.

Bullock was pure movie star in “Blind Side.” Without her carrying what was essentially a television-level script on her able shoulders, you’ve got no movie. She burst off that screen, lifted every scene she was in and did what’s becoming more and more impossible for actors these days: pulled off a believable accent.

And who doesn’t love Sandra Bullock? She’s the rare actress these days — a goddess who’s managed to earn and maintain an enormous reservoir of audience goodwill. Bullock not only deserves to win on the merits of her performance, but all of America will be rooting for her. That should count for something.

Best Supporting Actor: There is no way Christopher Waltz doesn’t win. His performance as Nazi Colonel Hans Landa in “Inglourious Basterds” has already rightfully taken its place in cinema lore.

Best Supporting Actress: The smart money says Mo’Nique is as much of a shoo-in as Waltz and it’s hard to disagree. The other four performances were fine but there’s no arguing that Mo’Nique not only landed the kind of role that sticks in your mind, she knocked it out of the park.

Screenplay: Both “The Hangover and “500 Days of Summer” wuz robbed. Give the Academy points, though, for not nominating “Avatar.” Not that it wouldn’t have been memorable to watch Michael Blake rightfully attempt to accept the statue in the event of a win.