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Box Office Predictions: 'Lion King' Will Lead Pack While 'Straw Dogs' Brings Up the Rear


“In the more modern progressive Hollywood “Lion King” version: all characters are oppressed, seeking social justice, and victimized by the jungle’s search for big bananas…” – Master Iron Fist

If most of this fall’s film offerings have left you unexcited, we’ve put together a list of our seven favorite action trailers to help ease your pain.

This weekend’s box office will be fun since there is no clear favorite to win. Our predicted box-office and revenue rankings for the weekend goes as follows:

1. The Lion King 3-D ($15 million): The re-release of Toy Story and Toy Story 2 together in 3-D did produce a very surprising $12.4 million opening in October of 2009. The overall effect of 3-D has gone down considerably since then but Lion King has another advantage in that it’s old enough to inspire previous generations to want to see it in a different light. Combine that with how kids haven’t had much to watch these last few weeks and you have is a surprise finish.

2. Contagion ($11.3 million) – Film will be knocked down to a runner-up position and will need smaller drops than this in the future if its to become profitable after you add in full marketing/production costs.

3. Drive ($9.7 million) – Has some buzz from the festival circuit and will get the action audience. Problem is that the marketing makes it feel very Transporter-like, while early reviews indicate the film is actually more complex. As Sensei has often said: any type of misleading marketing (Conan for example) leads to lower than expected openings.

4. I Don’t Know How She Does It ($8.1 million) – Will bring in some of Sarah Jessica Parker’s Sex and the City audience. It’s from the Weinsteins, though, who’ve already recently mishandled Our Idiot Brother and Apollo 18. Both quickly underwhelmed audiences, so don’t expect anything different from this one.

5. Straw Dogs ($7.2 million) – This feels “old hat” with the similar home invasion vein seen in The Strangers mixed with an attempt to achieve the “remake” success of 2009’s Last House on the Left. This genre and concept feel stale and The Help could very easily rise up and take this spot.

All our best.

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