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Box Office Predictions: Christian Film 'Courageous' Will Surprise, 'Lion King' Will Win


Once the announcement came this week that Lion King 3D would extend its run, you just had a feeling it would challenge for the top position at the box office again. Time has proven Disney wise.

This weekend’s predictions and projected revenue results go as follows:

1. The Lion King 3D ($14.5 million) – Film is continuing to hold strong through the week, outperforming A Dolphin Tale by an almost two-to-one margin. That gap will close quickly this weekend, but Lion King still holds just enough of an edge to win.

2. A Dolphin Tale ($13 million) – An epic rematch with Lion King 3D begins. Positive word of mouth and overall momentum are an advantage for Dolphin right now, but Lion King is still a event film that audiences are seeing more than once. Will be a close match-up.

3. Moneyball ($12 million) – This baseball film’s biggest hurdle this weekend will be, well, baseball. The Major League playoffs will be in full force and will steal away a noticeable chunk of the film’s target audience. The film will hold well though, off its strong audience/critic reviews. It’s also starting to pull Oscar buzz much like The Blind Side did during its run.

4. Dream House ($10 million) – Film is hoping to tap into the success Insidious had back in the Spring. The key difference is Insidious was produced for a miniscule $1.5 million, so mid-level openings were fine for its profitability. Not the case here as Dream House’s budget is considerably larger ($60 million). The other problem is director Jim Sheridan’s prestige has gone down considerably since his last directorial effort ( Brothers – cringe) came in vastly below expectations in 2009. Look for this to disappoint at the box office as well.

5. 50/50 ($9.3 million) – The film’s subject matter is brave and something different for audiences. Critic reviews are strong but success all come down to how the weekend audience rates it. If audiences rate this high, look for it to challenge Dream House and place a little higher in the top five.

Bonus Picks:

CourageousHas the potential for Fireproof like opening numbers ($6.8 million). In fact, look for the film to finish around the $9 million range, easily beating that mark. This healthy opening will surprise Hollywood (in a good way) again.

What’s Your Number? – Critic reviews haven’t been strong but film will get a boost from rising newcomer Anna Faris and newest A-lister Chris Evans. Look for this to finish around the $6 million range.

Have a great weekend.

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