Box Office Predictions: 'The Vow' Swoons, Fears the 'Ghost Rider'

Sensei added to his streak last week. His streak of calling the correct #1 film now stands at 13 straight weeks, easily the longest in the nation.

All bets are off this week as a prime fight for the top spot begins. Our predictions and revenue results (both three and four day) for President’s Day weekend go as follows:

1. Ghost Rider: Spirit Of Vengeance ($35 million/Fri-Mon), ($31.5 million/Fri-Sun) – Despite minimal marketing (practically nonexistent), this one will benefit off high interest from younger male audiences. The original “Ghost Rider” being released five years ago will not factor in very much. Much like Liam Neeson and Denzel Washington this season, Nicolas Cage will do very well headlining such action fare.

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2. The Vow ($32 Million/Fri-Mon), ($28 million/Fri-Sun) – Again there will be a fight for the top spot. “The Vow” posted the highest Valentine’s Day ever last week (11.5 million). Whether that will translate to staying power to win this weekend is a key question. This film will lose date night audiences to “This Means War,” and that means a strong runner-up finish to “Ghost Rider.”

3. Safe House ($26 million/Fri-Mon) ($22.7 million/Fri-Sun) – Ring up another hit for Denzel Washington, especially off this muscular second weekend.


4. This Means War ($23 million/Fri-Mon) ($20 million/Fri-Sun) – Chris Pine and Tom Hardy are very strong rising stars. Reese Witherspoon? Afraid not. Her career has been in a tailspin since 2007’s disastrous “Rendition.” Add to that 2010’s “How Do You Know,” which became one of the biggest box office flops in film history. You see why we’re concerned. Look for sub-par results here fueled off Mr. Pine and Mr. Hardy’s star power, but weighed down by Ms. Witherspoon’s continuing box office troubles.

5. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($22 million/Fri-Mon) ($18 million/Fri-Sun) – To complete the very successful holiday weekend, even this one will finish strong. Look for strong ticket sales with family audiences.

In other calls, look for “The Secret World of Arrietty” to open around $5.7 million (Fri-Mon) and $4 million (Fri-Sun).

Is this the week Sensei’s streak finally goes down? Love your thoughts.

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