Sensei was right to predict as “less than inspiring” opening from Elysium last week. This week, more controversy returns.
Quick note: As always, these are predictions, they are not based on any opening numbers or early box office reports. Predictions are submitted earlier (Thursday usually) before any of the new releases open.
Sensei’s weekend predictions and revenue results go as follows:
1. “Kick-Ass 2” ($24 million) – Jim Carrey refused to do publicity for this one, basing his action on his new-found stand against gun violence after Sandy Hook. But in reality, he really did bring this film “more publicity” with his “no publicity” actions. So much so, this sequel will win the weekend, and ironically give Jim Carrey his first #1 opening film since the animated A Christmas Carol (2009).
2. “The Butler” ($18.5 million) – Despite awful marketing and bad press (courtesy of Oprah herself), Sensei is giving this one a Moneyball-like start. He doesn’t see it, however, opening as high as The Help ($26 million). Red flags all over this one. If the dreaded “political” sucker punches materialize, look for yet another box office disappointment.
3. “We’re The Millers” ($16 million) – Oh yes, this prediction will shock many, but the film already pulled ahead of the higher budgeted Elysium as of Tuesday this week. Sensei sees that momentum continuing to pull a surprise second weekend finish.
4. “Elysium” ($13 million) – Bad buzz has all but engulfed this one. As mentioned before, it’s already dropping down the top five during the week. A big drop was expected and the John Carter comparisons continue. This one looks to make as much as Carter did in its second weekend ($13.5 million). But then again, Carter has better audience ratings. Either way, film isn’t going to come anywhere near District 9′s gross and fully bomb. A result that will send Sony executives scrambling on its $115 million dollar budget (not counting marketing).
5. “Planes” ($12 million) – Should bring in the family audiences, and should reach the $43 million mark. This one still has a chance to become a modest box office hit (off a $50 million production budget).
In other calls:
Don’t expect much from new releases Jobs or Paranoia. Jobs should finish around the $8 million mark. Paranoia will do worse, finishing around $5 million.
That’s Sensei’s calls. Enjoy the weekend.