Sensei’s back. Hope everyone had a nice holiday. Sensei quite enjoyed how some of the new openers performed over the holiday and says to get ready for an exciting weekend finish.
Sensei’s weekend predictions and revenue results are as follows:
1. “Frozen” ($32 million) – A spectacular opening last week, this film (along with Hunger Games: Catching Fire) helped set the record for the biggest Thanksgiving frame ever. What’s not to love here? Film has strong buzz, huge family audience support and will easily break the $130 million domestic mark. Sensei sees a close finish battling Catching Fire at the top this weekend.
2. “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” ($31 million)– It’s rare to have box office frames this strong. The last occurrence was, ironically, when Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows: Part One paired with Walt Disney’s Tangled to make serious bank. Here, Disney’s Frozen is paired with the exceptionally strong Hunger Games franchise and will be a horse race right up to Sunday’s grosses to decide the weekend’s winner. In fact, let’s get right to this film’s other big questions with Sensei:
Is Hunger Games: Catching Fire on track to be the year’s biggest film? The answer is a resounding yes, film has already passed the $300 million domestic mark. The mark to hit is $409 million set by Iron Man 3. So far, all sails ahead.
Will it beat the original Hunger Games gross? Internationally, that’s a given (already at $580 million worldwide), domestically the original Hunger Games finished with $408 million domestic and more than $691 million worldwide. Ironically, hitting the $410 million domestic mark will just beat both Iron Man 3 and the original Hunger Games. That $410 mark is in play, no question.
3. “Out of the Furnace” ($6.4 million) – This gritty, dark drama is opening to very small expectations. Christian Bale will be exercising his independent film reach and has some box office pedigree (The Dark Knight series). However, film remains a tough sell during the more up-tempo holiday season. Look for a lower opening.
4. “Thor: The Dark World” ($5.2 million) – The God of Thunder is cruising toward the $200 million mark domestically, and has already passed the original Thor’s total domestic gross ($181 million). Life is good in Asgard.
5. “The Best Man Holiday” ($4 million) – How smart does increasing this one’s demographics look now? Film is easily one of the season’s biggest hits. Film has already passed the original Best Man’s total gross ($34 million) and will break the $67 million domestic mark this weekend.
Those are Sensei’s calls. Have a great weekend.