New York Magazine’s Jonathan Chait has pronounced the 2016 presidential election over. Hillary will win, Chait says, because of the “emerging Democrat majority” in the American electorate.
On the day that Hillary clumsily announced her run for the presidency, Chait decided that the race is effectively over because the Democratic voter bloc too powerful for the GOP to beat.
This comports with the shaky partisan claim made over a decade ago in a book by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira. The authors gained great acclaim with their contention that Republicans could never again win national offices because there were simply too many Democratic voters for the GOP to overcome.
Since that book was published, of course, George W. Bush won re-election and there were at least two separate Republican waves that over took Washington. And that isn’t even to mention that many of the state governments also turned red in the intervening years.
Despite that, Chait has harkened back to a 13-year-old claim that Republicans just can’t beat the Democrat “majority” in order to shill for Hillary. With his attempt to declare the 2016 elections over, Chait said Hillary will win because, “The United States has polarized into stable voting blocs, and the Democratic bloc is a bit larger and growing at a faster rate.”
For proof, Chait relies on a new Pew poll that shows that more American adults lean Democrat than Republican (48 to 39).
But even Chait had to admit that this was a poll of “adults,” not a poll of voters. The fact remains that the better test of the future of elections is better seen in polls of registered and likely voters, not just “adults,” many of whom will never vote no matter which way they lean.
On the day Hillary became the first Democrat to jump into the race for 2016, Chait wants you to know it’s all over but for the coronation.
Follow Warner Todd Huston on Twitter: @warnerthuston. Email the author at email@example.com.