As I write this, I’m watching Slate’s Dave Weigel on MSNBC talk about how “what he’s seeing” on the ground in Ohio could mean bad news for Republicans. But all he’s reporting on are “long lines,” not actual vote counts or how those lines compare to 2008 — you know, even though that information is available to those who are interested in more than just anecdotal evidence that looks good for Obama.
Weigel’s not reporting, he’s a bystander giving witness testimony.
Reporting is what National Review’s Jim Geraghty did when it came to actually counting early votes in Ohio’s Democratic strongholds:
Cuyahoga County saw 2,536 voters Sunday, but that is down almost a thousand from the same day four years ago. In total votes, Cuyahoga County is now 14.7 percent behind where they were four years ago.
Through Sunday, 42,511 Cuyahoga County voters cast ballots early; four years ago, that number was 49,849. In 2008, 4,481 Cuyahoga County voters cast ballots on the Monday before the election.
Here’s more actual reporting, this time of Iowa’s actual early vote counts:
IOWA ABSENTEE BALLOT RETURNS: Dems 42.2%, GOP 32.1%, Indies 25.6%; 2008 was 46.9% D, 28.9% R & 24.2% indy/other
— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) November 5, 2012
When the CorruptMedia says Democrats are winning the early vote in swing states, the context most ignore involves how much better Republicans and how much worse Democrats are doing when compared to 2008.
Republicans almost always win the Election Day vote. So if the early vote margins are closing, that means Romney has a real chance to take the state. Two other points…
Many swing state polls wildly overstate their sample of early voters. Whereas actual early vote counts show that 22% of Ohioans and have voted, some pollsters show as much as 40% in their samples. Naturally, this gives Obama a boost.
Another thing these Republican early vote gains tell us is that enthusiasm for our side is up, enthusiasm for the Democrats is down, and our ground game has improved dramatically since 2008.