Campaign insiders say that exit polls showing an Obama win in Ohio are skewed D+8, the same ratio as in 2008. That turnout is unlikely. That being said, Obama is leading early in the key counties of Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Franklin (Columbus), and Hamilton (Cincinnati). This may be because urban areas are typically counted first.
In Virginia, Ari Fleischer has tweeted that the exit polls are D+4. Again, that sample may be skewed, and may be leading to perceptions that the VA race is closer than it actually will be when the final votes are tallied.