The AP expects the GOP to “tighten its grip” on the U.S. House of Representatives this year citing “redistricting after the 2010 census and the retirement of moderate Democrats in conservative states,” although the Democrats financial edge is something of a wild card.
Two of the most vulnerable governors are Pennsylvania Republican Tom Corbett and Illinois Democrat Pat Quinn. Incumbents and candidates in those states are hoping they can survive despite the top of the ticket. It’s especially true in Illinois where first-term Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider is in a close rematch with Republican Robert Dold in Chicago’s northern suburbs and freshman Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart is trying to hold off state Rep. Mike Bost (R-IL).
In the end it seems to come down to, not if the GOP will pick up seats, but how many, where and at what cost to both them and deep-pocketed Democrats determined to give them a run fpr their money in states where they can.
Two-term Republican Rep. Michael Grimm was indicted in April on federal tax evasion charges and pleaded not guilty. It may not cost him his New York seat in a district that covers Staten Island and a slice of Brooklyn. The former FBI agent and Marine still gets high marks from voters who appreciate pugnaciousness.
Democrats are feeling a bit better about the prospects for Rep. Nick Rahall to win a 20th term, though he is in the fight of his political career in West Virginia as he tries to distance himself from Obama administration policies. In Nebraska, Republicans know it will be close for eight-term Republican Rep. Lee Terry, who said last fall he would keep his government paycheck during the shutdown and then backtracked.
The AP took a look at the Senate mid-terms over this Labor Day weekend as well.
The top prize of the November midterm elections is control of the Senate for the final years of President Barack Obama’s administration. Republicans need six more seats to take over.