Quinnipiac Has Joni Ernst Up 6 Over Bruce Braley

Despite wishful thinking by Democrats and some media outlets that Democrat Bruce Braley had somehow righted the ship in Iowa, a new Quinnipiac poll just out indicates otherwise. 

Ernst closes the traditional Democrat gender gap among women down to 50 – 44, while leading among men 56 – 39. Given these kind of numbers, there may not be a turn-out model that works for Braley under any circumstances. Also, he’s at risk of being abandoned by the national party that will need to expend resources elsewhere in a tough election year.

Neutralizing the traditional Democratic lead among women voters, Republican State Sen. Joni Ernst leads U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democrat, 50 – 44 percent among likely voters in the race to replace U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin in Iowa, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Ernst leads among men 56 – 39 percent, while Braley leads among women by a smaller 50 – 44 percent margin, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. This survey of likely voters can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. 

The Republican also leads 50 – 43 percent among a key political group, independent voters, and 87 – 7 percent among GOP voters, while Braley takes Democrats 90 – 7 percent. While l5 percent of Iowa voters say they might change their mind, 84 percent say their mind is made up. 

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