If it plays according to the rules set out in the last two years, it is just a matter of time before Hezbollah avenges the assassinations of Samir Kuntar and Farhan al-Shaalan and it will most likely be a ground operation.
The IDF’s alert level has increased, but its alertness is mainly in the intelligence domain.
In response to the many attacks attributed to Israel in recent years, including attacks on Hezbollah’s communication facilities, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah exacted revenge in the form of a pinpoint and limited attacks against the IDF. The last and most significant incident occurred a year ago when, in a Hezbollah ambush, eight anti-tank missiles were launched at Givati forces near the village of Ghajar, killing Captain Yochai Kalangel and Sgt. Dror Haim Nini.
That attack was in retaliation for the targeted killing of Jihad Mughniyeh, the son of senior Hezbollah leader Imad, sent to the Syrian Golan to set up a Hezbollah base in the area after Kuntar failed at this task.
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