More than half of people intending to vote UKIP in this month’s European Elections will also vote for them at next year’s General Election. This is in stark contrast to last time, where UKIP received 16.5 percent of the vote in the 2009 European Elections but just 3.1 percent in the following year’s General Election, and suggests that more voters see it as a credible political force.
Professor Jane Green of Manchester University told politicalbetting.com: “Our data show that more than half of people, 57.6 percent, intending to vote for UKIP in the May 2014 European Parliament election also intend to vote for UKIP in the 2015 general election, whereas the proportion was half that number at 25.5 percent in 2009.
“UKIP European Parliament voters are also more decided about how they will vote in the general election next year than they were about the 2010 general election in 2009.”
Of the remaining UKIP European Parliament voters, 23 percent will switch their allegiance to the Conservatives next year, 8.4 percent will go to Labour and one percent will go to the Liberal Democrats.
Last time, 44 percent of people who voted UKIP in the European Elections said they would go on to vote Conservative in the following General Election, compared to just 25.5 percent sticking with the anti-EU party.
This backs up claims that it is the Conservatives who are suffering the most from the rise of UKIP, with voters previously happy to switch between the two parties now sticking with Nigel Farage.
According to Sunday’s poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times, 15 percent of people who voted Labour at the last General Election will vote UKIP in the European Elections, while 25 percent of Lib Dem supporters will switch to the anti-EU party.
“These findings could have major implications for the UK’s political landscape in 2015 if they are born out in polling stations,” Professor Green added.
UKIP currently do not have a seat in the House of Commons, but if their poll ratings from the European Elections hold up, they could be in with a good chance of taking one. If not, they will almost certainly receive the highest ever vote share for a party that does not have an MP, raising questions about the Westminster electoral system.