Despite weeks of attacks from the media and political establishment, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) is still in the lead among those certain to vote in next week’s European Elections. A poll by ComRes for the Coalition for Marriage (C4M) puts the party on 34 percent – ten points ahead of Labour – with voters who say they are 100 percent likely to vote next Thursday.
The Liberal Democrats, the most overtly pro-EU of all the parties, still languish in single figures just ahead of the Green Party.
When looking at data for all respondents however, UKIP’s lead disappears, and the party is tied for first place with Labour, suggesting that the results will depend largely on voter turn out. The establishment parties will need to get all their supporters out if they are to do well.
UKIP is now also in the lead in every English region among those certain to vote. Labour is in second place in most regions, with the Conservatives taking second in Yorkshire and Humberside, Eastern England and South East England.
If these results are borne out next week, they will see UKIP hugely increase its share of seats in the European Parliament.
The results as above would lead to UKIP winning 29 seats, Labour getting 20, and the Conservatives getting just 16. Embarrassingly, the Liberal Democrats would come away with just two seats; an increasingly likely scenario.
But with 5 days until election day, it is all still to play for. Depending on weather conditions and this week’s news cycle, it could somehow still end up being a Labour win. But at this point, everything still looks rosy for Farage.