A new ICM poll has revealed today that the Conservative Party is now polling in first place for the European Elections, with Labour in second and UKIP in third.
Media outlets were quick to seize on the news that UKIP might have lost its lead, despite the fact that ComRes polling puts UKIP in a solid first place, and Opinium, YouGov and Survation all have them in the lead too.
It seems that ICM, who also put the Conservative Party in the lead last week, may not be using a particularly reliable sample of the British public. Four polling companies wrong, and ICM right? It is highly unlikely.
And what makes it even more unlikely is the fact that in 2009, ICM was the furthest out with its predictions for UKIP. The results, which every other polling company got correct within a margin of 2.5 percent, ICM got wrong to a measure of 6.5 percent. That should be deeply troubling for them.
In 2009’s European Elections, ICM predicted Labour on 24, the Tories on 30, UKIP on 10 and the Liberal Democrats on 18. In reality, Labour got 15.7, the Tories got 27.7, UKIP got 16.5 and the Liberal Democrats got 13.7 percent.
Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting.com points out that in 2009 ICM used telephone polling and that this year it has used online polling. Nevertheless, with a record like ICM’s, I think we would be better off listening to any of the other UK polling companies. Their latest results have been aggregated by Simon Lock in the graphic below: