UKIP Heading for 15 Percent Vote Share in 2015

The UK Independence Party (UKIP) could secure up to 15 percent of the vote at next year’s General Election, according to analysis by Political Betting. This would be by far the party’s best ever general election performance, and represent a huge improvement on the 3.2 percent they won in 2010.

Mike Smithson says that given the share of the vote they received in last month’s European Elections, and the percentage of voters pledging to stick with the party next year, they can now expect a strong performance.

This is in contrast to previous elections, where they have done relatively well in the European vote – seven percent in 1999, 16.2 percent in 2004 and 16.6 percent in 2009 – yet seen their vote share drop dramatically at the subsequent parliamentary election – 1.5 percent in 2001, 2.3 percent in 2005 and 3.2 percent in 2010.

Smithson writes that Professor Jane Green of Manchester University announced that data from the British Election Study (BES) showed that 57.6 percent of those who planned to vote UKIP in May’s European Elections intended to stick with the party at next year’s General Election.

The BES was accurate in predicting UKIP’s vote share in 2010, when it found that 26.5 percent of people who voted UKIP in 2009’s European Elections would stay with the party the following year.

Therefore, we can estimate that UKIP will receive between 10 and 15 percent of the vote next year, if the BES is as accurate this time round.

The study also found that of those who intend to vote UKIP next year, 44 percent voted Conservative in 2010, 17 percent voted Liberal Democrat and 11 percent voted Labour. This shows that, despite the party making inroads into Labour’s northern heartlands, it will be the Conservatives who are most badly affected by the rise of UKIP.

The scale of the party’s rise in popularity is also evident in the fact that just 9 percent of people who will vote UKIP next year also voted for them in 2010.