Nigel Farage has hinted at how a deal between the Conservatives and UKIP at the 2015 general election might work. He suggested a “potentially intelligent approach” would be for the Conservatives to offer UKIP a free run in twenty to thirty seats, in-exchange for UKIP leaving the Conservatives alone in rest of the country.
The UKIP leader was careful to be clear that he was not offering a deal but rather suggesting what Cameron might say to him. By suggesting how the Conservatives might approach a negotiation Farage, has carefully avoided a split in his own party over the issue. The Spectator reports that he also made clear no deal was likely because of Cameron and Osborne’s attitude toward UKIP members.
“No prospect of a deal as both Cameron and Osborne view us in UKIP as members of the lower orders, not proper people,” said Farage. But he then went on to explain what he would do in Cameron’s shoes, “it’s very easy, you offer UKIP 20 or 30 seats where the Conservatives will stand down, if you leave us alone in the rest of the country.”
This would ensure the Conservatives would not see their vote split in Labour marginals, whilst UKIP would also be free to take their key targets. This would create the potential for either Cameron to win or for there to be a coalition between him and Farage.
Another element that has fuelled talk of a pact is the obvious compatibility of the two parties after the European Elections. As previously reported on Breitbart London, UKIP party managers described themselves as “stunned” by their success in galvanising working class support for what is an essentially right-wing party.
This is in sharp contrast to the Conservatives who have brought back middle class support since their disastrous 1997 general election defeat but very few working class voters. A general election UKIP surge, along with a pact, would see Labour losing seats to UKIP. It would also shore up the Conservative vote as middle class UKIP supporters tactically vote for Cameron in the marginals where UKIP has pulled out.
Such a scenario would propel Cameron to victory and probably leave UKIP as the third party, beating the Liberal Democrats. However, both UKIP and the Conservatives remain deeply divided on the issue of pacts, and as they campaign more against each other, animosity is likely to grow.