Labour bosses have claimed that UKIP voters will propel their party to victory at next year’s General Election, according to the Daily Telegraph. The party says that if UKIP poll over 9 percent, they will cost the Conservatives enough seats to put Miliband into number 10.
Despite some concerns about UKIP taking votes from Labour in the local and European elections earlier this year, they still believe the surge in support for Nigel Farage’s party is good for Ed Miliband overall. This is because the majority of UKIP voters, even today, are still believed to be former Conservatives. This means they split the Tory vote, whilst leaving the Labour vote relatively intact.
Labour strategists have claimed that the overall result of the general election could hang on UKIP’s performance. If they can hold on to anything like the 27 percent they got in May, they will hand the keys to Downing Street to Mr Miliband. Labour came second in the European elections after UKIP, pushing the Conservatives into third place in an election they normally win.
UKIP scored just three per cent of the vote in 2010, but since then, its poll ratings have soared to about 13 percent in current opinion polls. A poll conducted by Lord Ashcroft showed that 52 percent of UKIP voters at the European elections were former Conservatives. This compared with just 15 percent who were former Labour voters.
This has led Labour to conclude that UKIP is a far larger threat to the Conservatives than it is to them. One party strategist said: “The Tories lose a lot more than we do from a decent Ukip performance… The whole election could hang on how many of their current voters stick with them next May.”
Whilst some senior Labour figures want Miliband to attack UKIP, it is understood that he has been persuaded not to because they will help his chances.
Senior Conservatives have admitted that the party is working hard to bring UKIP voters back. They claim to have had some success when presenting voters with a choice between Cameron and Miliband for Prime Minister.
Many UKIP voters are disillusioned with David Cameron but are horrified by the prospect of Miliband becoming Prime Minister. When asked in a recent poll who would make the better Prime Minister 46 percent of the British public said Cameron, whilst just 22 percent said Miliband.
But it is not true to say that there is unanimity on the view that a UKIP surge is only good for Labour. There are seats like Rotherham where Labour are suffering at the hands of Nigel Farage. As previously reported on Breitbart London, UKIP decided to target working class voters some time ago, and this paid off in May. It is possible that this process will continue and therefore dilute the former Conservatives in the party.
One Conservative MP said: “UKIP is not just a dark-blue party. They are picking up votes in Grimsby and in Bradford and other key Labour seats.
“Yet again Ed Miliband’s office seems to be about 10 years behind the curve. While they are taking votes from the Tories, Ukip are also taking votes away from Labour which could cancel out any benefit Miliband sees.”
So far polling says that UKIP will win two seats at the general election, Thurrock and Thanet South. Farage is expected to run in one of these places.