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Tories Take Poll Lead With Less Than Two Weeks to Go

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The Conservatives have taken the lead in two polls today, with Lord Ashcroft putting them six points ahead and an ICM poll for the Guardian giving them a three-point lead.

Ashcroft puts the Conservatives on 36 percent (up two), Labour on 30 (unchanged), UKIP on 11 (down two), the Liberal Democrats on nine (down one) and the Greens on seven (up three). This puts the Conservative lead outside of the margin of error for the first time and is their highest ever lead in an Ashcroft poll.

Meanwhile the Guardian/ICM poll puts the Conservatives on 35 percent (up one), Labour on 32 (no change), UKIP on 13 (up two), the Liberal Democrats on nine (down one) and the Greens on five (no change).

The polling is a little more mixed for UKIP, with the Ashcroft poll putting them down two points, but the ICM/Guardian poll having them climb two points to their highest level since December.

Taking a projection from the ICM figures, the Guardian now estimates that the Conservatives will be single largest party in the House of Commons with 274 seats, while Labour will have 270. This puts both parties well short of the 326 seats needed for a majority.

Even with the Scottish National Party’s projected 54 seats, a Labour/SNP alliance would still fall two seats short.


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