A three per cent swing to the Conservatives in the first Tory-Labour marginal seat to be declared in the 2015 General election so far isn’t just a cheering result for David Cameron, but it confirms the late surge of blue voters indicated by yesterday evening’s exit poll.
In many regards Nuneaton is a classic bellwether seat. Conservative through the 1980’s, Labour through the 1990’s and 2000’s, and falling into the hands of the Conservatives again in 2010, the town is a neat microcosm of suburban England. Tribal voting areas vary from a council estate until recently understood to be among the most deprived areas in the European Union, to smart commuter homes feeding professionals to Birmingham and London, to large farming estates and the impressive country home of Viscount Daventry.
The re-election of local lad Marcus Jones has nationwide significance. If the Conservatives can increase their vote share in Nuneaton, which Labour confidently believed they would win today, the election is now all but won. The gravity of the Nuneaton victory hasn’t been lost at Conservative central office either – a Tory source at CCHQ told Breitbart London that political strategist Lynton Crosby blew a bugle in celebration of the result, such was his joy.
Co-chairman Lord Feldman was said to have been dancing in the halls at Conservative HQ.
Although they came a relatively distant third, the local UKIP branch will also have reason to celebrate, having increased their vote share by 14 per cent since the 2010 general election.