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An Independent Scotland by 2025? Future Looks Bleak For A United Kingdom

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A poll taken across the UK has found that most Britons believe Scotland will be independent within the next decade. Those polled in England were more sure of Scotland’s future with 59% believing it will be independent by 2025 as opposed to 52% in Scotland. When 2040 is the date given 72% of Scots believe they will be independent, 71% of the English.

The results are taken from an online poll of 3,977 UK adults (1,056 in Scotland) conducted by Survation for British Future  in the week following the general election.

Noting the discrepancy between English and Scottish opinion on the question, British Future commented: “Many, it seems, have watched the SNP landslide result on election night and concluded that Scotland is already lost.”

Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future, said:

“It’s interesting that Scotland is split pretty much down the middle on whether independence will happen, even within a decade, while more people in England think it’s already lost. This fits with Nicola Sturgeon’s pragmatic, gradualist approach and reluctance to call a quick referendum.”

The poll also asked about constitutional arrangements other than independence for Scotland. Asked whether “a new government should now come up with a new constitutional settlement for the UK that offers significant powers to the nations and regions of the UK” 73% of Scottish respondents agreed as opposed to 48% English.  13% of Scots agreed that “the new government should not offer significant further powers to the nations and regions of the UK” compared to 26% English. Regarding these findings Katwala commented:

“David Cameron has more work to do with the English. Some doubt that the union can be saved and while only a minority are against Scotland getting more powers, he will have to persuade the undecideds that it’s worth his time and energy.”


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