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'U.S. and China are Headed for a Generational Crisis War'

The North Koreans are threatening a ‘sacred war’ and ‘physical response’ to the joint U.S.-South Korean naval exercises taking place in the Sea of Japan between Japan and Korea, and soon in the Yellow Sea between China and Korea. The exercises are a response to North Korea’s torpedoed sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan.

This is typical of North Korea’s bluster, but the confrontation between the U.S. and China is far more significant.

Xinhua's photo of USS George Washington leaving for naval drills

The above Xinhua photo of the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington leaving for the naval drills is intended to convey a subliminal message of a militaristic U.S. victimizing North Korea and China.

The accompanying text quotes a Beijing official as saying, “We sternly oppose activities that affect China’s security by foreign military vessels or aircraft at the Yellow Sea or in China’s offshore waters. We urge relevant parties to remain calm and exercise restraint and not do anything to exacerbate regional tensions.”

The real confrontation between the U.S. and China came two days earlier at the meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rebuked China for its policy in the South China Sea.

South China Sea, with blue line added to show region claimed by China as part of its sovereign territory

This is a story that’s been growing in importance for almost 15 years. The bottom line is that China claims that, for historical reasons, all of the islands in the South China Sea are part of Chinese territory, just as if they were part of the Chinese mainland.

The blue line in the above map demarcates the region claimed by China to be sovereign Chinese territory. There are some 200 islands in the huge region claimed by China, some of them submerged or very tiny. The major groups are the Paracel Islands (Xisha in Chinese) and the Spratly Islands (Nansha in Chinese).

China’s claims were put forth in the 1990s. The details of China’s claims were described in a 2001 research report by the Heritage Foundation.

China’s reasoning is bizarre. First, China claims that its sovereign maritime border is 200 nautical miles out, not the traditional 12 miles. This gives China sovereignty over many islands and reefs in the South China Sea. China then claims that all these islands and reefs are Chinese territory. Therefore, China claims that they can further extend their maritime border another 200 milies beyond these islands and reefs. By hop-scotching in this way, China claims that its territorial borders extend more than 1,000 miles from the Chinese mainland.

In consequence, China claims that any foreign ships passing through the South China Sea must agree to numerous restrictions, and military ships are forbidden altogether without permission of the Chinese government. These claims are challenged not only by the U.S., but by a dozen other countries in the region.

The claims have been left simmering for years, and ignored in practice. But in recent times, China has become more aggressive in its claims. China is building a massive naval base on the island of Hainan Dao (see above map). The base will house China’s new nuclear-armed submarines, as well as its first aircraft carrier, expected to enter service by 2012, and many other warships. China has harassed U.S. surveillance ships in the last year. And China has built up a small military presence in the Spratlys, and boarded and seized Vietnamese fishing boats in the area.

China has also used the code phrase “core interests” in its rhetoric, putting China’s claims to the South China Sea on a par with their claims to Taiwan and Tibet.

In a press conference on Friday, Clinton “set forth my government’s position on an issue that implicates the security and prosperity of the region, the South China Sea.”

Clinton said, “We oppose the use or threat of force by any claimant. While the United States does not take sides on the competing territorial disputes over land features in the South China Sea, we believe claimants should pursue their territorial claims and the company and rights to maritime space in accordance with the UN convention on the law of the sea.”

Clinton’s words were not particularly bellicose, but the Chinese, who sometimes become almost hysterical when confronted with criticism, were definitely unhappy with this statement, according to Reuters. The article quotes an unnamed diplomat describing the private reaction of Clinton’s counterpart, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi. Yang made “a very strong and emotional statement … He was distinctly not happy.”

This reminds me of a statement by Sha Zukang, China’s U.N. ambassador, in an interview with a BBC reporter in 2006. I’ve never seen this interview reported anywhere else, but I transcribed this myself because I was so startled at hearing Sha screaming at the top of his lungs at the BBC interviewer.

He screamed: “The moment that Taiwan declares independence, supported by whomever, China will have no choice but to [use] whatever means available to my government. Nobody should have any illusions on that. … It’s not a matter of how big Taiwan is, but for China, one INCH of the territory is more valuable than the LIVES of our people.”

When asked about the U.S.’s criticism of China’s rapid militarization: “It’s better for the U.S. to shut up, keep quiet. That’s much, much better. China’s population is 6 times or 5 times the United States. Why blame China? No. forget it. It’s high time to shut up. It’s a nation’s sovereign right to do what is good for them. But don’t tell us what’s good for China. Thank you very much.”

This is the same reaction that China always exhibits. They are reacting the same way with regard to the South China Sea as they are with Taiwan, and a military confrontation is possible at any time.

Last week, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, expressed increasing concern about China’s “fairly significant investment” in equipment such as satellites, aircraft, anti-ship missiles and a planned aircraft carrier group, according to VOA.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the U.S. and China are headed for a generational crisis war with nearly mathematical certainty. With their unreasonable territorial claims and their massive military buildup, we can conclude that China is planning a full-scale war with the United States. The only thing we don’t know is when they plan to launch it.


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