Afghanistan dénouement

Those closely involved with operations in Afghanistan have known since 2008 that there was a better than average chance that our very good allies, the Dutch, were going home in 2010. It was also known that the Canadians were looking for the door as well, and were going to go a year later.

There was some hope that with the right leadership and perhaps a little luck, they would change their minds. Unlike the caveat laden Italians, Spaniards, Germans and others – the Dutch and Canadians were relatively caveat-free maneuver forces doing a very good job to the extent they could – fighting on par with their British, American and smaller allies in the South. Together, the Dutch and Canadians provided roughly a Brigade sized force performing full-spectrum Counter Insurgency.

The numbers are not what is important – it is having allies with skin in the game. Most allies in AFG do just enough to get a flag outside HQ ISAF, but make little impact on the ground to create a safe and secure environment – much less protect the population.

To get the Dutch and Canadians back – and to keep others from running to the door – we needed leadership from the President. The USA is the big dog – and we are expected to provide the leadership. Well – how has that worked out for us?

Perhaps the Dutch and Canadian politicians were already too committed – the Dutch government fell trying to extend their AFG operations remember – but the right leadership could have kept others from going. A review:

– Dutch start leaving this month – 1,600.

– Canada going home in 2011 – 2,800

– Poland is looking at 2012 – 2,600.

– Most significantly, Britain will start next year and hopes to have everyone out by 2014/5 – 9,500.

Next year is 2011 … significance of that date? Of course, the infamous July 2011 date from the CINC’s West Point speech – a speech that historians will use as an example of one of the greatest examples of a Strategic Communications failure and strategic incompetence.

I am sorry, SECDEF is a great American, but this covering fire might work on the Sunday talk shows – but it the capitals around the world – it reeks of defeat.

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates suggested Sunday that only a small portion of the U.S. force in Afghanistan will begin to return home next year when an Obama administration deadline for the start of a troop pullout goes into effect.

…

The U.S. will have more than 100,000 troops in Afghanistan by the end of this summer. Gates said Sunday that the rate of the withdrawal will depend on the security conditions in the country. He said he expected the pace to increase as conditions improve.

“I think we need to reemphasize the message that we are not leaving Afghanistan in July of 2011. We are beginning a transition process,” Gates said on the ABC News program “This Week.”

“Drawdowns early on will be of fairly limited numbers,” he said. “It will depend on the conditions on the ground.”

There is still time to achieve some kind of victory – but time is short and it will be all up to Uncle Sam.

The less useful allies; Germany, Italy, Turkey, France, and Spain won’t be far behind in heading for the door. It didn’t have to be this way – and yes, they will be replaced by American forces. On a positive note – I think we now see that we need to be prepared to go it alone in all things. The wisdom of relying on allies, once again, has been demonstrated to be a risky thing. Nice to have – not need to have.

This isn’t Obama’s war – this is America’s war. Victory is critical – but in my view much more difficult now. It didn’t have to be this way – on the DOD side we have the team of Gates-Mattis-Petraeus – you could not ask for a better one. On the civilian side we have the parade of fail from Ambassador Eikenberry to President Obama. No wonder everyone is leaving. Would you follow that team unto the breach?