Armageddon or Peace?

The Iranian Ahmadinejad regime repeated announced goal is the destruction of the State of Israel. The goal of the State of Israel is survival. Israel feels it has the absolute right to defend itself against a potential nuclear attack. Iran has developed and tested a missile which potentially can deliver a nuclear weapon to Israel. Various international reports indicate that the Iranian regime intent is to develop nuclear weapons. Some sources indicate an Iranian nuclear weapon is now ready for deployment; others indicate it will be a few months; and other reports indicate it will be a few years. Israel in 1981 bombed the Osirak Iraq nuclear facility and in 2007 Israel destroyed the Syrian nuclear reactor being built by North Korea. Israeli policy has been to disallow militarily any potential enemy state from developing a nuclear weapon or any weapon of mass destruction.

In the West, few appreciate that the Middle East has for thousands of years been a cauldron of conflict, war, and destruction. For the first time the issue is a potential Middle East nuclear war. Be it now, a few months, or a few years, we are at an immediate decision point with unimaginable international negative consequences which will last at least a lifetime or longer.

To begin to understand such an issue, you must deal with positive, negative, and probable scenarios. Within each scenario there are separate groups which collect raw data, information, and indicators; evaluate the often conflicting data; and act or react to the evaluated data. There are open sources and classified sources. Currently there is a massive psychological warfare or disinformation campaign from all interested parties — propaganda at the highest level. Any source of information or any individual claiming to be objective will be distrusted by all parties.

A positive scenario is that the potential Iran-Israel conflict will be resolved diplomatically with aggressive negotiations and sanctions. Iran will allow the IAEA access to inspect all nuclear installations. Iran will not develop a tactical nuclear weapon. Israel will not attack Iran. All interested parties will continue diplomatic negotiations on a national and international level to pressure Iran through sanctions not to develop a nuclear weapon. Israel will realize that the harm and risks will greatly outweigh the benefits of any military attack option. Another plank in the positive scenario is that there will be a regime change in Iran and a new regime cooperating with the international community will agree not to develop nuclear weapons. The new regime will no longer have an announced goal to destroy the State of Israel.

A negative scenario is that diplomatic efforts will fail. War is impending. Historically, the most aggressive U.S. and international diplomatic efforts failed to prevent North Korea, India, Pakistan, and South Africa from developing nuclear weapons. Iran will develop and announce possession of a tactical nuclear weapon. Israel will attack the numerous Iranian nuclear facilities. The Israeli position is that an attack on Iran will create international censure, but that option is better than an actual Iranian nuclear attack on Israel, especially when the announced Ahmadinejad goal is the destruction of Israel. Iran will retaliate and attack Israel. The longer the diplomatic option progresses; the closer Iran will come to developing a deliverable nuclear weapon; the higher the probability Israel will attack Iran. In retaliation, Iranian assets will attack the United States and other nations which are perceived to support Israel. The Straits of Hormuz will probably be closed for an undetermined period with a substantial spike in crude oil prices and substantial decrease in international crude oil availability. An Israeli attack on Iran will not completely destroy all the nuclear facilities even with repeated attacks and heavy Israeli losses. A successful Israeli mission will cripple, but not destroy the facilities. As a result of a nuclear Iran, several Middle East nations will develop nuclear weapons — Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Jordon, etc. Technology is no longer a barrier to develop nuclear weapons.

A probable scenario is that Iran will not announce actual development of a deliverable nuclear weapon, but continue to develop a nuclear weapon and continue to improve their long range missiles. The propaganda war will intensify. International diplomatic negotiations will continue at the highest level, perhaps not strongly supported by Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, Russia, China, and other seemingly pro-Iranian nations. The United States and the international community will exert concerted maximum pressure on Israel not to attack the numerous Iranian nuclear facilities. There will be discussions to change U.S. policy and create a nuclear umbrella over Israel to prevent an Iranian attack on Israel.

Another plank in the positive scenario, but not a certain probability, is that Iran will develop a nuclear weapon and the U.S. and international community will pressure Israel not to attack Iran. Israel and Iranian neighbors will accept living with a nuclear Iran. Under this scenario as a nuclear military power Iran will expand its hegemony over several Middle East nations through increased trade, economic exchanges, and political activities. All parties clearly understand an Israel-Iran conflict will be an Armageddon disaster and must be prevented at all costs. On the other hand both Israel and Iran will continue to prepare for war.

It is impossible to predict which scenario will unfold or predict probability or timing of an Israel-Iran conflict. For the U.S. general public without security clearances, it is impossible to be a truly informed general public. To follow these issues, a Google search will surface some sources of conflicting information. A most interesting web site is http://www.nti.org, (Nuclear Threat Initiative NTI) Iran Nuclear Sites, which locates some of the numerous Iranian nuclear facilities.