The Future of Post-Castro Cuba: Introduction

The Government of Cuba (GOC) will be at a cross roads in 2011. The Castro dictatorship regards the current US Administration as “simpatico.” The GOC feels in the coming year there will be a move to end the US Cuban economic boycott and continue to normalize political relations with Cuba. Such a policy will be the de facto recognition of the Castro totalitarian dictatorship. Before removing the US-Cuban boycott, the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of US citizen expropriated property must be addressed. What protection will US citizens have when they are arrested by the GOC since there are no civil liberties in Cuba? Actually, as I understand it, in every Administration since 1959 there have been US officials who have tired to normalize US Cuban relations. Fidel allegedly refused to relax relations with the US because massive tourism and foreign investment would trigger a movement to overthrow the Castro regime. Castro communist regime policy is freedom from choice, private ownership, etc.; whereas, in a democracy our policy is freedom for choice and private ownership. The basic conflicts are irreconcilable. Expect the normal Castro sympathizers over the coming months will press for major US policy changes regarding Communist Cuba. Castro will want US Cuban policy changes only on his terms.

Born in 1924, Fidel Castro’s health has deteriorated substantially since late 2007. But in late 2010 he has partially recovered and is back on television and in public view after a long incommunicado period. Actually on February 19, 2008, he publicly turned the running of the Cuban government over to his brother Raul. Raul, born in 1931, is a cancer survivor, allegedly alcoholic, and has never been allowed to make independent decisions under Fidel. Anti-regime sources also say that Raul is paranoid and they note Raul has the charisma of a dead bacalao (dried salt cod). Since February, 2008, Raul has promoted the older most hard-line military to help him rule. He has purged the younger GOC officials. Eight key players are Gen Alvaro Lopez Miera, Ruling Council Member and FAR Vice Minister; Gen Lucio Morales Abad, Chief of the Western Army; Gen Onelio Aguilera Bermudez, Chief of the Eastern Army; Gen Rafael Bello Rivero, Chief of the Central Army; Major Luis Alberto Rodriquez, Raul Castro’s son-in-law, Director of the vast Armed Forces businesses; Comandante Ramiro Valdes, Minister of Communications; Gen Eduardo Delgado Rodriguez, Deputy Director of Direccion de Inteligencia (DI) and Counter Inteligencia; and Marino Murillo Jorge, Minister of Economy & Planning and Vice President, Council of State. The Castro policy is to “Institutionalize the Revolution” before the Castro brothers die. Today, partially recovered, Fidel is still the ultimate decision maker.

The US officials who originally followed the Castro brothers are long retired and many are deceased. For years there has been considerable US government analysis on a post-Castro Cuba. We really do not have a large group of US officials who have served in Cuba, know the current leadership, and know the younger generation of officials. In fact Cuba is not even on a US government or US pubic radar screen. Cuban issues current are not a priority.

What is certain, finally, in the coming years both Fidel and Raul Castro will die. The decades old issue is what will happen to Cuba after the Castro regime? There are basically four alternatives: a) no major change b) major positive change from an authoritarian regime to a democracy c) gradual positive changes d) rapid violent Gotterdammerung political collapse. We have watched the collapse of USSR and East European communism and substantial changes in Chinese communism. It is impossible to predict what will happen in Post-Castro Cuba.

What is fact is that the Castro dictatorship regime has destroyed the Cuban economy. In late September the Regime announced that 500,000 government workers, perhaps an under estimate, must be fired. Many of the workers only received 20 to 30 pesos a month. That is about 10% of the 5.1 million Cuban workforce out of a total population of 11 million. Spain, Mexico, Canada, Japan, and other nations have tried to invest and trade with Cuba. Cuba has defaulted on billions of dollars of loans of all types. Castro has destroyed the Cuban international credit. The Soviet Union for years subsidized the Castro economy. Today Chavez in Venezuela has been providing Cuba about daily 100,000 barrels of crude oil, which in late 2010 was worth $70s-$80s barrel, at very liberal credit terms or gratis. The reality is few foreign investors have made a reasonable return on their investments and been able to repatriate profits out of Cuba. There is no functioning rule of law in Castro Cuba as we know it in the US. Once a foreign group is successful financially, Cuba has often substantially raised the income tax on the foreign owned venture. The Cuban military, which owns many of the tourist facilities, will benefit from increased foreign tourism. The serious real issue now is how will the 500,000 or more fired ex-government employees feed their families?

The Cuban regime has announced after years of negotiations successful offshore oil lease sales and foreign companies are preparing to drill offshore. Except with offshore oil, it can take five to ten years to shoot seismic, discover oil, build the necessary subsea infrastructure, and drill additional wells. All this costs billions of dollars. There will be no immediate massive oil income for Cuba, if there is oil in commercial quantities offshore Cuba, and that is to be determined. Offshore Cuban oil is totally a “to be proven,” high risk “wild cat” situation.

Before changing the US policy to Cuba, let us look at actual issues dealing with an unstable Cuba in the hands of hard line military without the Castro brothers. As Americans, it is difficult or impossible for us to understand the pathological hatred individuals and nations have for our nation. Fidel Castro and Raul Castro have had for decades this anti-US hatred. Under the supervision of the heinous despot Che Guevara, the Castro Regime shot at least two thousand, sent other thousands to prison, and forced hundred of thousands into exile. Since 1959 the dictator Castro has ruled Cuba with a ruthless iron fist.

Castro Cuba in 2011 will be at a cross roads. There are six issues important to the post-Castro Cuban transition:

1) Ideology

2) Economic War

3) Cuban Intelligence

4) Military

5) Cyber War

6) Potential Boat Lift Exodus.

[Editor’s note: Stay tuned for Part 1 of a six-part discussion of Post-Castro Cuba. For a detailed analysis, see: http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu]