A very dramatic scene is underway in the obscure republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, a province in southern Russia, part of the North Caucasus.
On October 20, gun fighting broke out between rebel forces and police, in which people on both sides were killed, according to Jamestown. After the clash, about ten insurgents hid inside some 300 kilometers of underground tunnels connecting abandoned mines.
Northern Caucasus — Russia’s southern provinces – Sochi 2014 logo at left is site of 2014 winter Olympics
In a massive counter-terrorist operation, over 400 policemen have been sent to trap the insurgents in the mines, with the objective of capturing them and preventing them from escaping.
The operation is expected to go on for several more days. However it ends, it’s sure to become a part of the folklore of this region, a long-time site for the historic conflict between ethnic Russians and ethnic Circassians.
A major new chapter in that historic conflict is about to be written, thanks to an incredible confluence.
Sochi is a beautiful resort on the Black Sea. But Sochi is also several other things. For example, Sochi is also the site of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Russia.
Sochi is also, by incredible coincidence or design, the site of a historic, well-remembered battle that occurred exactly 150 years earlier.
In 1864, the decades old Caucasian War between the Russians and the Circassians climaxed in a huge Russian victory that Circassians refer to as a genocide. Furthermore, in the years that followed the battle, the Russians used forced migration to disperse the Circassians to other regions, and relocated ethnic Russians to Sochi. The result is that Sochi, which had formerly been a Circassian stronghold, became a Russian resort.
Although rebel activity has been high for several years throughout the North Caucasus, the Circassian provinces — Adygea, Karachay-Cherkessia and Kabardino-Balkaria — have generally been a quiet exception.
But that began to change after Sochi was chosen for the 2014 Winter Olympics, as activists began calling attention to the Circassian plight. The increased rebel activity has been energized by the selection of the resort city of Sochi, according to a 2009 article on the Circassian World web site, which promotes Circassian independence.
The biggest terrorist attack so far occurred on July 21, when rebel terrorists attacked the Baksan hydroelectric power plant with homemade bombs, disabling the plant and causing millions of dollars in damages. It’s only in the last few days, according to Itar-Tass, that the persons directly involved in the sabotage has been arrested.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Russia’s North Caucasus provinces are headed for a major new war. As we reported recently in Caucasus Region Becoming Lawless Again, this region is a centuries old battleground on the fault line between the Muslim and Orthodox Christian civilizations. However, the region’s flirtation with Arab jihadists, which appeared to be growing a few years ago, still exists but now seems to be receding in favor of ethnic conflicts.
Several analysts are commenting on a remarkable speech on October 25 by a high Russian official, Ivan Sydoruk, the deputy Procurator General of the Russian Federation.
Sydoruk essentially admits that Russia is losing control of the Caucasus. His speech contradicts the common Russian line, and specific statements by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, that terrorism in these provinces, especially Chechnya, is under control.
The analyst Paul Goble quotes Sydoruk as saying that, contrary to the claims that militant attacks are dying off, in 2010, “the number of extremist crimes had increased by more than four times [over 2009], and that 70 percent of these 352 acts had taken place in Chechnya.”
Sydoruk blames the situation on the disastrous economic situation. As of July 1, there were some 449,000 unemployed in the North Caucasus, some 40% of the population, creating a breeding ground for militants and extremists.
Thus, although Russian forces had killed over 400 militants in the last nine months, and prevented “more than 50 terrorist acts,” the militants are quite able to recruit replacements, find money and arms, and enjoy some support in the population. According to Sydoruk, “Give some one of them a 100 dollars and he will do whatever you want.”
Putin’s hand-picked president of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, has been blaming Georgia for backing the terrorist attacks in Chechnya, providing weapons and financial support. However, Sydoruk contradicts this, according to an analysis by Jamestown Foundation.
Sydoruk completely contradicted Kadyrov’s accusations against Georgia, stating that most of the weapons in the hands of the militants came from the Russian Siloviki — the army and security forces. If true, this means that Russia’s security themselves are split, possibly along the same ethnic lines as the population.
It’s quite unusual for a high Russian official to step out of line like this. His comments are consistent with other, more anecdotal reporting from the Caucasus, and are more credible than the standard Russian line. Still, it won’t be surprising if Sydoruk is digging salt mines in Siberia next year.
The Caucasus remains possibly the most dangerous and least understood region of the world. Expect the tension to increase as the world becomes more aware that the 2014 Olympics will also be commemorating the Sesquicentennial Anniversary of alleged genocide in Sochi at the climax of the 1864 Caucasian War.
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