The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts that there will be a major food crisis in 2011, unless food production is increased substantially. The analysis appears in the organization’s biannual “Food Outlook Report.”
FAO Food Price Index versus CPI, 1990 to 2010
Food prices spiked to crisis levels in 2008, sparking food riots around the world. FAO’s food price index increased to 197 in October, higher than the 2008 level, although the average for the entire year so far is slightly lower.
According to the FAO:
“Contrary to earlier predictions, world cereal production is now forecast to contract by two percent rather than to expand by 1.2 percent as anticipated in June. Unexpected supply shortfalls due to unfavourable weather events were responsible for this change in direction, according to the report.Global cereal stocks are forecast to decline sharply and Food Outlook makes a strong call for production to be stepped up to replenish inventories. World cereals stocks are anticipated to shrink by seven percent according to FAO, with barley plunging 35 percent, maize 12 percent and wheat 10 percent.
Only rice reserves are foreseen to increase, by six percent according to the report.”
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we’re seeing is what I call the “Malthus effect,” a continuing increase in the price of food as the population grows faster than the supply of food. (See “”Food: Green revolution v Malthus effect.””)
As you can see from the above graph, food prices were steady or declining until 2002. Since 2002, food prices have been surging much faster than inflation.
The survivors of World War II (GI and Silent generations) were well aware of the horrors of famine and starvation that occurred during the war, and they developed the Green Revolution to make sure that everyone in the world would be fed.
It’s really not surprising that the surge in food prices occurred in the same time frame as the tech, real estate and credit bubbles that have developed into the current global financial crisis. The same generational greed and nihilism that led to the debauched use of credit has also led to the collapse of the Green Revolution.
The Green Revolution led to huge increases in food production in the 1960s and 1970s, but for some reason, many people believe that the Green Revolution is some magic potion that will last forever. In many ways it was a one shot deal — improve crop yields by using a lot more water, fertilizer and insecticides. Since then, water has gotten scarcer, and fertilizer and insecticides have been overused.
Here’s a graph of world wheat production since 1961 — total and per capita from FAOStat:
World supply of wheat, total and per capita, 1961-2007
As you can see, total wheat production (the thick red line) has been growing continually since 1961, but you can also see that the rate of growth began to level off around 1990. If you look at the blue line, you can see that the wheat total per capita today is about 20% higher than it was in 1961, but that it’s been in a declining trend. That’s a very good reason why food prices have been increasing sharply in the last decade.
Many people are aware of declining birth rates in America and Europe, and believe that world population is either leveling off or declining. Actually, population growth has slowed in Western countries, but has been very high in Sunni Muslim countries:
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Population Growth Rate
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Western countries Other non-Muslim countries
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United States 0.97% Russia -0.47%
United Kingdom 0.28% Vietnam 1.10%
France 0.53% China 0.49%
Germany -0.06% Thailand 0.60%
Israel 1.63% India 1.38%
Spain 0.05% Mongolia 1.50%
South Africa -0.05% Korea, North 0.39%
Japan -0.24% Korea, South 0.26%
Iran(Shia Muslim) 0.94%
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Sunni Muslim (especially Arab) countries
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Indonesia 1.10% Egypt 2.00%
Uzbekistan 0.94% West Bank 2.13%
Turkmenistan 1.14% Gaza Strip 3.29%
Syria 1.95% Pakistan 1.51%
Saudi Arabia 1.75% Kuwait 3.50%
Iraq 2.45% United Arab Emir 3.56%
Libya 2.12% Yemen 2.71%
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Source: CIA Fact Book
Over the years, I’ve asked several knowledgeable Muslim experts for an explanation of the high birth rate in Sunni Muslim countries, which is apparently little known, even among Muslims, but have received none.
This is a remarkable phenomenon. Most of the Middle East was in a generational Awakening era in the 1940s, one generation past the cataclysmic collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The most likely explanation for the birth rate is that it became “common wisdom” among Sunni Muslims at that time to develop a higher birth rate, as the way of rebuilding the Muslim empire that had been so powerful for six centuries. This would be similar to the “common wisdom” decision made by people during the West’s generational Awakening era (in the 1960s-70s) that a lower birth rate was desirable to save the planet.
At any rate, the imbalances in population growth in Sunni Muslim countries will have the effect of food shortages because of distribution issues. Even if there’s enough food in the world to feed everyone, it’s meaningless unless the food can be distributed to everyone, and that’s becoming more and more difficult.
On my web site I write about many sensitive subjects — ethnicity, religion, war, terrorism, and so forth. But over the years, my articles on the Malthus effect and the food crisis have generated more hysterical responses than the others. It’s very strange, but here’s what I think: One can point to religions and ideologies that promote war, ethnic cleansing, terrorism, etc., but I’m not aware of any religion or ideology that promotes acceptance of the Malthus effect. At any rate, anyone who thinks that the food supply grows as fast as the population should explain why there are tens of thousands of wars every century.
In fact, the Malthus effect is contrary to the tenets of every religion and ideology, since acceptance of the Malthus effect would make the religion or ideology valueless. In fact, maybe that’s why there are so many different religions and ideologies. Each one has a different solution for explaining and defeating the Malthus effect, and each one fails, because there is no way to defeat the simple fact that, in the long run, the population grows faster than the food supply, and that can only lead to wars of extermination. That’s the conclusion of Generational Dynamics, which is analytical, and free of any ideology.
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