What is not understood in Washington, and by most US citizens, is that Mexico, our closest neighbor, is our most important strategic foreign policy and economic trade nation. Mexican demographics both in Mexico and of Mexican-Americans in the US are key issues in understanding importance of Mexico.
In 1956 I attended a very memorable lunch in Mexico City during which the speaker extolled the current progress of Mexico. He referred to the 1910 Mexican Revolution, which this year is exactly 100 years ago, and the harsh decade after the Revolution. The statistics are not exact, but perhaps 5% to 10% of the Mexican population was killed, starved, or went in exile. In the 1930s the world wide Depression again was harsh on Mexico. But during the 1940s and the first part of the 1950s Mexico prospered. There was food for the population; there were vastly improved public health medical services; and the nutrition had improved greatly. With improved medical services the mortality rate had fallen dramatically. Poor peasant families were moving to the cities for vastly increased opportunities. Especially during WWII there were jobs and improving prosperity. Mexico in the mid 1950s was a proud, productive, growing nation.
Then the speaker began to talk about population. He expected the next census would have Mexico at a population around 40 million. Then he said the current birth rate was estimated to be 3.5%. That statistically meant Mexico could double its population every 20 years if Mexico maintained the 3.5% growth rate. He said in rough terms he expected Mexico in 1960 would have a 40 million population; then in 1980 Mexico would have 80 million; in 2000 it would be 160 million; in 2020 it would be 320 million; in 2040 it would be 640 million, and in 2060 it would be 1,280,000 billon. In other worlds with a straight line 3.5% growth rate in one century from 1960 Mexico would have over 1 billion population. That figure caught my attention and the attention of the entire audience-“espantoso”.
The next day I was told a copy of the speech was given to the President of Mexico.
When I got back to the States I discussed the talk with several friends. One friend who was an accountant replied “The Rule of Seven.” The Rule of Seven is a simple mathematical formula to determine how long it takes for a number to double over a period of years. For example with a population growth rate or interest rate of .035% divided into 7 would result in the number doubling in 20 years. In other words with a growth rate of 3% the population will double in 25 years; growth 2.5% the population will double 30 years; growth 2% the population will double in 35 years; and growth rate of 1% will double in 70 years. My friend noted that straight line projections never work as predicted.
Beginning in the 1960s Mexico had a very strong family planning policy. Today fifty years later Mexico has reduced its population growth rate substantially. Mexico in 2007 has a population estimated to be 106 million. The current estimates are Mexico has a birth growth rate of 1%, a miraculous birth rate reduction. One estimate is that in 2050 Mexico could have a population of 132 million.
The 3.5% population growth rate of the early 1950s has plummeted. But large numbers of Mexicans have moved to the cities. Today Mexico City is a megacity with millions and millions. Today there is an increasingly large elderly Mexican population with an increasingly smaller younger population to support the older generation. In contrast the Mexican American population in the US has maintained a high growth rate and have made major contributions to our nation.
The strategic problem will develop in the coming few years when Mexico changes from an oil exporting nation to an oil importing nation. The federal government of Mexico takes 91% of the national oil company PEMEX profits for 37%of the federal budget. When, not if, that income for the federal budget disappears there will continued upheaval. What needs to be watched is the Mexican economic growth rate, job formation, and GNP. Even more important we must continue to cooperate with Mexico to deal with the crime rate and the current destabilizing drug war drug wars.
In the coming federal election there is a probability the current PAN party will not regain the Presidency and the once long time PRI party will take power. The issue is will the coming economic storm, a totally predictable storm, create an increased migration to the US, in spite of increasingly restrictive US Immigration policies, in the short term or long term from a neighboring nation with over a 100 million population?
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