The best analysis I’ve see so far of what the future holds in Egypt comes from Benny Morris at the National Interest. He rightfully points out that Hosni Mubarak is done and in the short-term the political center of gravity in Egypt is the army. After that?
“The army most likely will determine where Egypt is headed during the coming months.
But the real decision about the country’s future will most likely be determined in four or six or eight months’ time, when the country goes to the polls. An army-backed interim government, either of the wall-to-wall national-unity variety, comprehending secular and Islamic parties, or a narrower secular coalition, will pave the way for these elections, the country’s first democratic experience.
And it is in that election that Egypt’s fate–and perhaps the Middle East’s–will be determined.
For if the Muslim Brotherhood, the largest and best organized of the country’s parties, wins–as did Hamas, the brotherhood’s little sister, in the Palestinian general elections in 2006–Egypt and the geopolitics of the Middle East will be revolutionized and radicalized, possibly to the point of precipitating a major war. The area will rapidly fall under the domination of an Iranian-Egyptian coalition and the Egypt-Israel peace treaty of 1979 will be scrapped.”
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