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Bahrain's government chooses the massacre scenario

World officials are shocked at the violent response of the Bahrain government to peaceful protesters, including women and children, in Manama, the capital city. At dawn on Thursday, police smashed into demonstrators wit guns, clubs and teargas, killing at least four people, according to Al-Jazeera.

The following video is pretty bloody, but shows what’s happening:

[youtube B6RCBOC-MAM nolink]

Both Tunisia and Egypt have chosen a non-massacre scenario, and both of those governments have been overthrown. The Bahrain government decided to learn that lesson, and follow the path of Thailand and Iran.

And like both of the latter countries, Bahrain is in a generational Awakening era. This means that the riots and demonstrations will only continue, with increasing violence over a period of years.

And this puts into question of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, which is headquartered in Manama, with responsibility for the area stretching from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea and the entire Persian Gulf.

Bahrain is just a group of 33 small islands. For millennia, Bahrain has alternated between Arab rulers and Persian rulers. For almost two centuries, it’s had a government of Sunni tribal leaders, although the population is 2/3 Shia.

Thus, unlike Tunisia and Egypt, Bahrain has a substantial ethnic fault line between the monarchy and the majority population. (See “14-Feb-11 News — Reader question about the Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood.”)

Persian Gulf region.  Bahrain's 33 small islands are a tiny dot in this mapPersian Gulf region. Bahrain’s 33 small islands are a tiny dot in this map

This is the difference that motivated Bahrain’s government to take the massacre route. Furthermore, unrest in Bahrain could easily spread to its neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia.

The Arab News reports that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers met in Manama on Thursday, and took a unified stand to counter any threat to the bloc’s member countries. According to Bahrain’s foreign minister, “The GCC ministerial council declared its total support to Bahrain because GCC’s security and stability is indivisible.


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