Dozens of people have been killed across Yemen on Monday. Previously, fighting had been largely confined to the capital city, Sanaa, but in the last few days, violence has spread to a number of other cities as well, indicating the possibility of a situation spiraling out of control.

Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh (Al-Arabiya)

The peaceful demonstrations began in Sanaa in February, with protesters demanding that President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down, after 33 years ofrule. The demonstrators were following the pattern of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.

Saleh’s security forces began using live ammunition and teargas on the peaceful protests in March, and the use of violence has been increasing ever since. Once the killings mounted, the powerful al-Hashid tribe, headed by a former Saleh ally Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar, turned against Saleh and joined the protesters.

Yemen violence escalating

Yemen

Several escalations have occurred within the last week. Saleh’s forces have begun using bombers to attack Hashid positions, according to Al-Jazeera. A group of 300 militants, led by Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) attacked and devastated the town of Zinjibar on Saturday. On Monday, Saleh’s forces bombed the militants in Zinjibar, and ground forces fired on peaceful protesters in the city of Taiz for the first time.

Some of the military began to defect when the army started firing on unarmed protesters, but they’ve mostly been loyal to Saleh until recently. However, the militant takeover of Zinjibar has caused a group of dissident generals to defect, accusing Saleh of surrendering to the “armed terrorist group.”

Analysts who cover Yemen have been expressing different views on what’s coming next. According to a BBC analyst in Sanaa,

“To some extent, the protests have been hijacked, not only by tribalists, but by military defectors and political Islamists. Yet amazingly, given the combined efforts of all these parties, the people in the squares are still trying to remain independent.”

An analysis by Al-Arabiya says that Yemen is “rapidly descending into chaos and anarchy”#>:

“Deep divisions among his opponents are likely to ensure that Mr. Saleh’s ruling General People’s Congress (GPC) will retain power whether or not the president is around to lead it. GPC’s positioning is also enhanced by divisions within the armed forces with key units commanded by members of the president’s family loyal to the president. The split in the military has moreover deprived Yemen of a powerful institution that like in the case of ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak could tell Mr. Saleh authoritatively that it is time to go.

As a result, Mr. Saleh is showing no inclination to leave office before his term ends in 2013. He has several times backed out of a deal negotiated by the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that would have eased him out of office in exchange for immunity against prosecution.

Yemen is meanwhile rapidly descending into chaos and anarchy as a result of Mr. Saleh’s tenacity. It is a situation that the president believes works in his favor whether or not he retains power. It strengthens his claim that only he can prevent Yemen from disintegrating and Al Qaeda’s Yemeni affiliate, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Gulf (AQAP), from taking over parts of the country.

It also deepens the divisions in the country and among the opposition which enhances the GPC’s ability to hold on to power if and when he is gone.”

Yemen has been an important strategic ally of the United States in the fight against terrorism. But it’s also become the headquarters of Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, the most dangerous al-Qaeda spinoff in the world right now. A civil war in Yemen would have dangerous consequences for the world. The offensive is being taken as a result of demands by the Obama administration, but some analysts say that the operation would subject the army to even more public criticism in a country where anti-US feeling runs deep.