World View: Tens of Thousands of Syrian Refugees Pour into Neighboring Countries

This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tens of thousands of Syrian refugees pour into neighboring countries
• Vitriolic U.N. meeting continues with 30-day extension of Kofi Annan plan
• Spain’s euro crisis continues to worsen, even as bailout is approved
• Anti-austerity riots turn violent across Spain
• China to deploy a military garrison in South China Sea

Tens of thousands of Syrian refugees pour into neighboring countries

Sunnis in northern Lebanon celebrating the bombing of Damascus. That poor guy on the bottom looks like he’s about to throw up. (Reuters)

Wednesday’s bombing in Damascus, Syria, has triggered a massiverefugee crisis in neighboring countries, as tens of thousands ofcivilians flee to Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Turkey. As many as 30,000have poured into Lebanon in the last two days alone, increasingsectarian animosity. Lebanon is wary of setting up refugee camps,since the “temporary” Palestinian refugee camps that they set updecades ago have turned into permanent slums. Turkey is alreadyhousing some 40,000 Syrian refugees in tent camps, but now thousandsmore are continuing to cross the border seeking safety. Armenia isalso seeing an influx of ethnic Armenians who have lived in Syria forgenerations, but are now fleeing. BBC andIrish Times

Back in 2003, when I was first developing Generational Dynamicsas a theory, I met with Professor Peter Turchin of University ofConnecticut, who has done a great deal of work on PopulationDynamics which is highly relevant to generational theory.Most academics that I’ve approached have simply blown me off,but Professor Turchin was kind enough not only to meet with mebut even to listen to me and critique Generational Dynamics.

Professor Turchin rejected generational theory, and gave me thefollowing counterexample: There was an extremely bloody crisis wararound Rome in the decades of the 80s BC. Professor Turchin produceda study of “buried Roman coin hoards” during various time periods.People tend to bury their gold coins for safety during times of war,often they’re forgotten until they’re discovered by archaeologistsyears later. By looking at the dates stamped on the coins, it’spossible to estimate when they were buried. The study showed thatthere were huge findings of coin hoards from the 80s BC war, and thenagain the 40s BC. This showed that the 80-year cycle was violated.

At that time, I didn’t have an answer for him, since I was justgetting started, but the solution became apparent later. During the40s BC decade, there was great fear of a civil war, especially whenJulius Caesar “crossed the Rubicon” in 49 BC, and then again whenCaesar was assassinated in 44 BC. There was great FEAR of a civilwar, so people buried their gold coins, but there was no ACTUAL civilwar that lasted more than a brief period.

I believe that something similar is happening in Syria today. Therewas an extremely bloody civil war that climaxed in 1982 with hugebloody massacres across Syria, and people living today remember that.They FEAR that there’s going to be a repeat, and so they’re fleeingacross the borders in great numbers. In actual fact, there’s fightingin Damascus, but there’s little fighting across the country, as far asI can tell, so the fear is unfounded. And, in fact, a crisis civilwar is impossible during a generational Awakening era.

Vitriolic U.N. meeting continues with 30-day extension of Kofi Annan plan

The bitter shouting that occurred in the United Nations SecurityCouncil on Thursday, when Russia and China vetoed a Western resolutionthat would call for sanctions if Syria did not pull its heavy weaponsout of civilian neighborhoods echoed on Friday. The U.S. and Europehad threatened to refuse to renew the 300 man U.N. observer mission inSyria that was part of Kofi Annan’s peace plan, on the grounds thatthey couldn’t do anything anyway since it was too dangerous for themto venture from their barracks. Russia called that threat “blackmail”last week, so there was a sort of compromise on Friday. The observermission would be extended, but only for another 30 days, to give ittime to wind down for an “orderly withdrawal.” Russia and China wantto continue the observer mission, known as UNSMIS, indefinitely.Al-Jazeera

Spain’s euro crisis continues to worsen, even as bailout is approved

Spain 10-Year bond yields at 7.27% on 20-Jul-2012

The EuroGroup of euro area finance chiefs agreed to a bailout of 100billion euros ($122 billion) for Spain’s banks on Friday, but that had noapparent effect whatsoever on the Spain’s problems, which are rapidlyshooting up into full-fledged crisis levels. The yields (interestrates) on Spain’s ten-year bonds jumped to a historic high of 7.27%,indicating that investors are betting that Spain’s government is goingto default. The adjoining graph shows an inexorable climb in bondyields that is very similar to what happened to Greece, at the timethat European officials were saying that everything is OK and Greecehad no problems. As we’ve said many times, there is NO SOLUTION tothe euro crisis, and to Spain’s crisis in particular. Investors werenot impressed by Friday’s huge bailout agreement with Spain because,at the same time, Spain’s Valencia region said that it would need an18 billion euro ($22.1 billion) bailout. Reuters

Anti-austerity riots turn violent across Spain

It looks like it’s going to be a long, hot summer in Spain. Policefired rubber bullets to disperse crowds in cities across Spain, withmore than 100,000 attending a rally in Madrid’s main Puerta del Solsquare. With Spain’s unemployment rate at 25% Treasury MinisterCristobal Montoro said that “there is no money” to pay civil servantwages. He added, “It is time to call a spade a spade. Financingpublic services with more deficit and more debt will doom us.”Telegraph (London)

China to deploy a military garrison in South China Sea

China’s central military authority will deploy a military garrison inthe Spratly Islands, whose sovereignty is disputed. The garrisoncommand will be responsible for managing the city’s national defensemobilization, military reserves and carrying out military operations.China has been occupying the Spratly Islands pursuant to its claim tohave full sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, including areashistorically belonging to other countries. Xinhua

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