This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Syrian anti-government rebels say they shot down a fighter jet
- Analysis: Finding a Global Solution to the Syrian Crisis
- Planned Saudi industrial city excludes mixed gender workers
- Greece continues downward spiral as economy contracts 6.2%
- Banks, companies and investors prepare for collapse of the euro
Syrian anti-government rebels say they shot down a fighter jet
Syrian rebels with captured pilot — still image from video (al-Jazeera)
A rebel group fighting against the regime of Syria’s president Basharal-Assad says that they shot down a government plane and captured oneof the pilots. They’ve posted YouTube video showing the jet crashingand another of the pilot giving a statement. The Syrian regimeconfirms the plane crash, but said that the crash was caused bytechnical problems during a regular training mission. If the rebelclaim turns out to be true, then it will be one more majorpsychological victory following a string of high profile defectionsfrom the al-Assad regime. Al-Jazeera
Analysis: Finding a Global Solution to the Syrian Crisis
The following is from Javier Solana, a Nato expert writingin the Moscow Times:
“The feeling is growing stronger by the day thatSyrian President Bashar Assad’s regime is approaching a tippingpoint. Kofi Annan, the United Nations and Arab League specialenvoy, has abandoned his efforts to implement an internationallyagreed six-point plan to end the violence. Now the internationalcommunity must think seriously about how to minimize the dangersinherent in Syria’s domestic turmoil. …
In particular, there is a growing danger of Sunni retaliationagainst the Alawite minority, which comprises only 12 percent ofthe population but controls the government, the economy and thearmy. The Alawites, who overcame second-class citizenship onlywhen Assad’s Baath party came to power in 1963, now believe thattheir very survival is linked to that of the regime.
If the Syrian opposition does not take the Alawites’ concernsseriously, the country could be wracked by years of civil war,worse than the conflict that devastated Lebanon from 1975 to1990.”
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the last paragraph iscompletely wrong. Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and sothis kind of civil war is literally impossible at this time. As I’vewritten many, many times, the current conflict in Syria will not getworse but will fizzle. The precise scenario cannot be predicted, butright now it appears to be trending towards a situation where al-Assadsteps down, and the remaining factors form some kind of unitygovernment.
What’s interesting about Solana’s comments is his claim that thesurvival of the Alawites at the hands of the Sunnis is in question.Sunnis are going to be dominating a post-Assad government, and therewill be bitter, lingering memories of the massive slaughter of Sunnisby Alawites in 1982, as well as the war crimes by al-Assad’s regimeagainst Sunnis in the current conflict.
What’s really interesting is the comparison to the country next door,Iraq. Iraq is also in a generational Awakening era, and when itscivil war fizzled in 2007, it formed a unity government, but this timethe Sunnis are in the minority, and the Shia are in the majority.With the Alawites linked to the Shias against the Sunnis, it could besaid that Syria is going through Iraq’s civil war with the rolesreversed. An argument could even be made that Bashar al-Assad is nowplaying the role of Saddam Hussein. Moscow Times
Planned Saudi industrial city excludes mixed gender workers
A lot of people like to work without being bothered by having peopleof the opposite sex around the workplace, and that’s the case in SaudiArabia, where a new single-sex industrial city is being planned forfemale workers. The city will not be entirely closed to males, asthere will be areas where males will be permitted. LA Times
Greece continues downward spiral as economy contracts 6.2%
Athens graffiti: GREECE NEXT ECONOMIC MODEL (Kathimerini)
Greece’s downward spiral continues to accelerate, with the secondquarter of 2012 being the worst in years . The economy has contracted14 of the last 15 quarters, with the last quarter’s contraction at6.2%. In May, the European Commission forecast that Greece’s economywould shrink only 4.7% in 2012, but now that forecast has to berevised to a much higher contraction. As we’ve been saying for years,no solution exists to Greece’s debt problem other than a major worldfinancial crisis, despite the recitations of politicians. Kathimerini
Banks, companies and investors prepare for collapse of the euro
The 1930s Great Depression was worsened by high protective tariffsimposed by countries around the world. Tariffs are now consideredunfashionable, but in today’s financial crisis, another form ofprotection is being practiced in Europe. There’s a growing sense ofresentment in both lending and borrowing countries — the lendingcompanies resenting having to bail out profligate neighbors, and theborrowing countries having to suffer the demands of people lendingthem money. A sharp measure of the increasing nationalisticprotectionism in Europe is that banks and companies are refusing toallow their money to flow across national borders, for fear that theeuro will collapse. More and more banks and companies are refusing totake any credit risks at all in Europe. The European Central Bank(ECB) is trying to fill the gap by providing liquidity, but that’sonly fueling fear that the euro is approaching collapse. There aretwo countries that have benefited from these fears: Germany and theUnited States. Excess liquidity is flowing into both these countries,despite low or even negative bond yields (interest rates), becausefinancial execs are opting for safety over yield. Spiegel
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