World View: Militant Attacks in Sinai May Force Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty to Reopen

This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan Minister puts out $100,000 contract on filmmaker
• Japanese companies begin resuming operations in China
• Militant attacks in Sinai may force Egypt-Israel peace treaty to reopen
• Germany and France commemorate de Gaulle’s speech 50 years ago

Pakistan Minister puts out $100,000 contract on filmmaker

Railway Minister Ghulam Ahmed Bilour on Saturday

Nakoula Basseley Nakoula, the man considered responsiblefor the movie “Innocence of Muslims,” which triggered numerousanti-American protests by Muslims in several countries,has gone into hiding with his family. Pakistan’sRailways Minister Ghulam Ahmed Bilour on Saturday offereda $100,000 bounty to anyone who could kill Nakoula.Bilour said he knew that he was committing a crime byinstigating people for murder, but said that he was ready to be acriminal for this cause:

“I request all the rich people to bring out all theirmoney so that the killer can be loaded with dollars and gold. …

If there is a case lodged against me in the international court orin this country’s court, I will ask people to hand me over tothem. … I want to show these countries that we will not tolerateany such things.”

Bildour also requested help from the Taliban and al-Qaeda, a statementthat drew furious responses from Pakistan’s government, including thepresident and prime minister. Senator Zahid Khan, a spokesman for theAwami National Party, which is Bildour’s political party, said:

“We believe in nonviolence. How could we make suchannouncements? Our party has been fighting against militancy andextremism for years. How could we invite Taliban and al Qaeda tokill someone? Taliban and al Qaeda are our enemies who havekilled our loved ones. We have lots of concerns over thestatement of our colleague.”

There have been some reports that Bildour’s Railway Ministry is introuble because he can’t keep the trains running on time. Daily Times (Lahore) and CNN

Japanese companies begin resuming operations in China

Japan’s three biggest carmakers — Toyota, Nissan Motor Co. and Honda– had their dealerships and factories in China trashed by Chinesemobs last week, over the dispute between Japan and China over theSenkaku/Diaoyu islands. The same was true of Japan’s electronicsfirms, including Canon Inc. and Panasonic Corp. The riots andviolence reached a peak on Tuesday, which was the 81st anniversary ofJapan’s 1931 invasion of Manchuria. By Friday, the riots anddemonstrations had settled down, and Japanese firms have been resumingoperations.

Although both governments have attempted to de-escalate the situation,tensions have been growing on both sides, and there are fears that amistake or miscalculation could trigger a military clash. A mistakedid occur last week: No sooner had China lifted its annual fishingmoratorium on fishing in the East China Sea than an erroneous reportostentatiously announced 1,000 small fishing boats were headed to theislands. According to a Jamestown analysis:

“[A recent Chinese commentary] made it clear thatChina today is not the China that a recently industrialized Japaneasily defeated in 1894 when the territory under contest wasKorea. In fact, China today is not the China of 2005 or 2010, whenrelations between the two countries also soured. … At somepoint, Beijing may rule that Japan has crossed a line and decideto retaliate. Tokyo’s gambling, for its own domestic agenda, isall the more dangerous because of the opacity that characterizesgovernment operations in China as well as the internal tensionsgenerated by factionalism within the CCP ahead of a powertransition. These factors make it very difficult for outsideobservers to know with certainty what will trigger what responsefrom Beijing. This is especially true if Beijing senses thatdomestic dissatisfaction with the economy is threatening itslegitimacy, which could then make an external distraction–andnothing serves that purpose better than Japan–all the moreappealing. This also makes it possible for hardline elementswithin the CCP and the PLA to exploit tensions to shape thecomposition of the future Politburo ahead of the transition laterthis year.”

Though China’s politicians may try to de-escalate the tensions, theChinese people have been growing increasingly nationalistic andxenophobic every year in the last decade, and at some point the peoplewill force the government to take harsher action, as the analysisindicates.

Several web site readers have asked my why China and Japan arefighting over two insignificant, uninhabitable rocks in the middle ofthe East China Sea. The reason is because the owner of the islandsgets with them control over a 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)around the islands, and it’s believed that the region around theislands contains trillions of dollars in oil and gas deposits. Thesame is true of the Paracel and Spratly islands in the South ChinaSea, which is why China is using its vast military power to confiscateislands that have historically belonged to other countries. Bloomberg and Jamestown

Militant attacks in Sinai may force Egypt-Israel peace treaty to reopen

Terrorists in the Sinai, along the border between Israel and Egypt,fired on Israeli soldiers on Friday, killing one. The increase inattacks from Sinai militants is forcing reconsideration of the 1979Egypt-Israeli peace treaty, which restricts the number of soldiers andtanks that Egypt is permitted to send to the Sinai. There wasn’t aproblem when Hosni Mubarak was president, since he kept the Sinaiunder iron control, but since he was deposed, the Sinai has becomeungovernable, and the Bedouin tribes have been infiltrated withal-Qaeda militants. The Egyptians would like to increasethe number of soldiers and military equipment in the Sinai,but they’re restricted by the peace treaty. On Sunday,Israeli officials said that they would resist any attemptsto reconsider the terms of the peace treaty.Israel’s foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman said on Sunday:

“The Egyptians shouldn’t try to delude themselves ordelude others, and they should not rely on this demand. Theproblem in Sinai is not the size of the forces, it is theirreadiness to fight, to put pressure and to carry out the job as isneeded.”

However, the Israelis may be forced to change their minds because ofthe increase in militant attacks. Egyptian Foreign Affairs Councilmember Ahmed Abdel Halim said Sunday:

“We have informed Israel that we were sending moretroops than allowed in the Camp David Accords, so we couldconclude all the military operations in Sinai. This is so thatIsrael stays calm; we will not act against it.”

AP and Ynet

Germany and France commemorate de Gaulle’s speech 50 years ago

Charles de Gaulle in Germany, 1962

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France’s president FrançoisHollande attended a ceremony in Ludwigsburg Germany on Saturday,commemorating the 50’th anniversary of the September 21, 1962, speechby Charles leader Charles de Gaulle. The speech was extremelypassionate, and marked a turning point in the relations between thetwo bitter World War II enemies. Speaking in German, de Gaulle said,

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“I congratulate you, also, for being young Germans,which means you are children of a great people. That’s right, agreat people! Which has also made some great mistakes in thecourse of its history.”

A few months later, in January 1963, de Gaulle and Chancellor KonradAdenauer signed the Elysée Treaty or Treaty of Friendship. Deutsche Welle andGerman History Center

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