This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Nasa’s Mars Rover, Curiosity, takes a photo of itself
- H1N1 Swine Flu kills nine people in the West Bank
- The ‘Kick the Can Theory’ and the Fiscal Cliff
- Fiscal cliff negotiations
Nasa’s Mars Rover, Curiosity, takes a photo of itself
Curiosity Self-Portrait (NASA)
The spacecraft carrying the Mars Rover, Curiosity, was launched fromCape Canaveral on November 26, 2011. Curiosity landed on Mars onAugust 6, 2012, and it’s been conducting science experiments sincethen, though rumors that life had been discovered on Mars turned outto be false. This is an actual picture of Curiosity on the Martianlandscape on November 1. Curiosity’s cameras are not able to takethis shot, of course, so this picture is a composite of dozens ofimages that the cameras took, combined into a self self-portraitimage. Nasa and Jet Propulsion Lab (PDF)
H1N1 Swine Flu kills nine people in the West Bank
There have been 187 recent recorded cases of H1N1 swine flu in thenorthern West Bank, and nine Palestinians have died. In 2009, an H1N1epidemic erupted in Mexico and spread into a worldwide pandemic. “WHO declares a worldwide H1N1 ‘mild’ swine flu pandemic” The pandemic died out by Spring2010, after killing over 17,000 people world wide, and the WorldHealth Organization has warned that there could be a resurgence at anytime. AFP and Jerusalem Post
The ‘Kick the Can Theory’ and the Fiscal Cliff
Some time ago, I formulated the “Kick the Can Theory” which said thatif you want to predict what the Europeans are going to do, especiallywith Greece, then just figure out what the minimum amount is that theycan do to get past the current day’s crisis without solving theunderlying problems, which then continue to worsen. The crisis thenreturns in much worse form, a few weeks or months later.
The “Kick the Can Theory” has never failed. It has always correctlypredicted what the Europeans were going to do. It’s worthwhilelooking at it a little more closely, so that we can apply it to thefiscal cliff negotiations currently going on in Washington.
The Kick the Can Theory turns out to be more complicated than youmight think, because it runs in major cycles, with several stepswithin each cycle. Let’s remember how the cycle worked with Greece:
- Greece would be facing a crisis (e.g., bankruptcy by a date certain)
- European leaders would have a “summit meeting” to do discuss options, and to settle on a bailout plan.
- There would be bitter confrontations but the participants would lie to the press about them. Retiring Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Jüncker had the philosophy that “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”
- There would be no agreement, and more summit meetings would be scheduled. The participants would lie to the press.
- Finally there would be a summit meeting where a “nuclear option” would be revealed, and it would be announced that Greece’s problems were solved once and for all, with only a few “details” still to be worked out. A new deadline would be announced to settle all the details.
- This deadline would be missed, as would several subsequent deadlines, to decide on “details.” The participants would lie to the press.
- Summit meeting after summit meeting would fail to reach a decision, until two weeks before Greece had to make its next major bond payment.
- At that point, there would be agreement to loan Greece just enough money to make the next bond payment. The underlying problems would not be solved. Everyone would lie to the press, saying that all problems had been solved.
We’ve had three or four cycles of the above steps. The cycle as awhole is can-kicking, but what’s important to understand is that eachstep within the cycle is also a mini-can-kicking.
It’s worth repeating that there was never a “final solution” forGreece because no solution exists. It’s not that there were three orfour really good solutions, and the participants simply could notagree on which wonderful solution to implement. It’s that no solutionexists, and all the participants can do is blame each other.
Fiscal cliff negotiations
The United States is barely at the beginning of this can-kickingprocess. There have only been a couple of “summit meetings” so far,barely enough to get anywhere at all. Everybody is lying to the pressand blaming each other except that, as usual, the mainstream media istotally in the tank for President Obama, irrespective of anything elsegoing on, and will always agree with whatever he says, even when it’stotally incoherent.
As of this writing on Saturday evening, there appears to be a goodchance of a “deal” that will raise tax on the “rich,” which is whatPresident Obama wants, and there will also probably be some spendingincreases, and an increase in the debt ceiling. Thus, any deal willactually make things worse, but President Obama and the mainstreammedia will declare it to be a major victory and stocks will rise.
Or, perhaps there won’t be a mini-deal. Yesterday I heard analystssay that we may go over the “fiscal cliff,” which will result in hugetax increases on everyone, but then agreement will be reached nextweek (because then the Republicans will be voting for a tax decreaserather than for a tax increase) … or by January 14 … or by January21 … or by March.
If a “final solution” cannot be reached now, then how stupid do youhave to be to think that one will be found in March?
The Kick the Can Theory predicts that there will be multiple “summitmeetings” and confrontations, that all parties will continue to lie tothe press and blame each other, and that no agreement will be reacheduntil just a few days before some real crisis. At that point, therewill be some agreement on some part of the issue, just enough to delaythe current crisis a few more weeks. The cycle will repeat over andover until we’re at war. As in the case of Greece, no actual solutionexists.
By the way, I haven’t read anything about this, but I’m going to guessthat a lot of Europeans are looking forward with glee to theSchadenfreude they’re expecting to feel when America has to go throughthe same farcical process that they went through.
America is truly Greece now.